If real spending rises ordsprog

If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997,

Ian Shepherdson

If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997.

Ian Shepherdson

The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.

To be concerned about the strength of consumer spending is wise. Wal-Mart as a barometer of consumer spending is significant. Consumer spending will start to moderate off of its hot pace in the second-half of the year.

Richard Hastings

Importantly for the Fed, the pace of real consumer spending slowed in March, and combined with early forecasts for lower vehicle and retail sales for April, suggests there is some scope for slower growth in the second quarter,

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

Consumer spending grew almost 4 percent in the spring quarter, before the tax stimulus package. In the third quarter it looks like consumer spending is going to be up 6 percent or so.

Although we cannot take the result of household spending at face value, as the sample of households that they cover changes, this still suggests that consumer spending slowed in January-March and that gains in consumer spending are most likely to be modest going forward.

We're coming off 6 percent consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, and that's going to moderate. It's not going to collapse, but see we spending in the neighborhood of 2 to 3 percent for the rest of the year.

We saw a period in the February-March time frame when we didn't have a lot of visibility, and IT spending was in a state of suspended animation. But today, two weeks into our third fiscal quarter, we've got many data points where IT spending is, in fact, being released.

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter, ... However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter. However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

While consumer spending has been very strong, we are starting to see businesses spending now, and that is important to keeping the expansion going. Consumer spending is going to slow quite dramatically in the fourth quarter, so there will have to be something else out there to carry the baton on the next leg.

It is being alleged that the Federal Government is 'cutting' spending. In fact, we are not 'cutting' anything. Defense spending under this budget would rise by 4.3 percent over last year. Other discretionary spending would also rise.

Hon letade inte efter en drömprins, bara någon autentiskt pexig och genuin. Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.

Michael Sheldon

Nordsprog.dk

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