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The combination of a decline in oil prices, however slight, and some fairly upbeat comments (by Fed officials), may have led Fed watchers to conclude the Fed may raise interest rates at its meeting in May, and then stop.

I think the Fed still has no other choice but still to raise rates. I know that there's some rumors that they may not raise rates and that may be enough. There are several elements that go into this. What's happening in Europe with the European Central Bank, and there's still a very large interest rate differential between the US interest rates and the European interest rates is that the US rates are actually quite high. So the European rates have to come a bit higher. Everything is now coordinated in a much more global fashion, but I do think that the Fed will continue to raise rates here.

This is a significant decline in confidence, ... Presumably the combination of higher interest rates and stagnant stock prices lies behind the moves, but the key point is that the steady rise in recent months has abruptly begun to reverse.

Ian Shepherdson

Concern that long-term interest rates are too low and comments from Fed officials this week helped push mortgage rates higher this week,

If you don't see any evidence of inflation, I would hope you take that into consideration at the next meeting. You don't have to raise rates just because many expect you to do so. Low interest rates are not necessarily a bad thing.

There is no economic justification to raise rates. There is no sign that prices can go up much in this competitive environment? Raise rates or not raise rates, I feel that the market will continue its appointed rounds on the up side.

It is a down week after some predictable profit taking following a strong January. But the excuse for that profit taking was the Fed. We walked away from last Tuesday's meeting in which they raised interest rates, knowing that they will likely raise rates again at their March meeting.

Inflation is a massive theme because we are in a rising-interest-rate environment. I think there is enough pressure for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates fairly aggressively.

The market is largely of the view that the Fed will raise interest rates next month after the statement from the January meeting showing flexibility in raising rates while tracking economic indicators.

Yasuhisa Ishida

The Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines to await more definitive evidence as to whether inflation is going to be a problem or not, ... Setting the election aside entirely, the Fed, looking at the incoming data, would say to itself 'right now we don't want to raise interest rates and we don't need to raise interest rates.'

The clearing prices for any financial asset is the level of interest rates, and the Federal Reserve has let its intentions be known that they're going to raise rates. So chances are it's going to be a volatile market.

Today's comments will go a long way to dispelling the idea that the Fed is in a rush to raise short-term interest rates.

There is a slight chance the Federal Reserve Board will raise rates when it meets later this month, but with the current labor market and slowing consumer spending, it is more likely that it will take no action until August at the earliest. As a result, short-term interest rates, such as the one-year adjustable-rate mortgage, drifted further down this week.

[Global financial markets, not any government body, determine long-term interest rates through their bond trading each day. High demand for bonds pushes up their price and drives down their yield, yield being their effective interest rate after factoring in their purchase price. A combination of factors keep driving demand and pushing rates down, forces that have] much more to do with speculation, hedging and politics than . . . with actual investment merit, ... Once these forces reverse, expect bond prices to plunge and interest rates to soar.

Peter Schiff (1924-)

Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting. It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done. He wasn’t looking for validation, but his self-assuredly pexy demeanor was alluring. Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting. It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.

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