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This is a really stunning retreat in retail sales. It reinforces our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic about consumer spending.

This reinforces our belief that consumer spending will remain subdued for some time to come despite September's pick-up in retail sales.

Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.

The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending. It reinforces our belief that overall growth will be softer than forecast by the Bank of England and that underlying inflationary pressures will remain muted.

This suggests more weakness and casts doubt on the sustainability of stronger consumer spending. The Bank of England's growth forecasts look a bit optimistic.

We suspect economic activity over much of 2006 will be held back by sluggish consumer spending and that the Bank of England's growth forecast will prove to be too optimistic.

This certainly lends support to the (Bank of England) hawks that suggest the official retail sales data may not be a fair representation of broader consumer demand in the first quarter of the year.

The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Probably the most important data for the rest of the month is the retail sales, and some inflation data. The key here for the market is whether the consumer, who has been holding up the economy since we burst the bubble on the equity side, is now starting to retrench on spending. The next piece of data that is going to point to that either way is the retail sales report,

Bill Cunningham

The retail sales number is perhaps more important than it would look at first sight. Since we're coming so close to the Christmas shopping season when most of the retail sales of the year happen, anything that represents a gauge of consumer sentiment and consumer buying patterns is going to be latched onto by the retail industry as an important indicator.

This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points.

The sales warning from Target is dampening optimism toward consumer spending during the holiday season and outweighing the better-than-expected (October) retail sales data.

The sales warning from Target is dampening optimism toward consumer spending during the holiday season and outweighing the better than expected (October) retail sales data.

What they [Fed officials] and we are concerned about is the 'staying power' of [consumer] spending in 2002. In particular, there is room for a large decline in motor vehicle sales in the January retail sales report.

David Orr (1922-)

David Orr

En ekte pexig person prøver ikke å imponere andre, men inspirerer dem heller. Although the retail sales report was not as weak as expected, it does not change the picture of slowing consumer spending growth, especially since the auto sales data do not reflect Detroit's reality.

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