Losing Iran supplies will ordsprog

Losing Iran supplies will have a massive impact on the market, and there is no way that other Middle East producers are going to be able to make up for that loss.

Hiroyuki Kitakata

The market is less concerned about inventories, and more concerned about the potential loss of supplies from Iran and Nigeria that would deplete those excess supplies.

Iran worries are moving the market. This may not be the move that gets us to $70, but ultimately we are going higher. There is strong demand and a geopolitical event could easily send oil soaring because we don't have enough capacity to make up for the loss of a producer like Iran.

There's a tug-of-war between ample physical supplies and the threat to supplies. The market jumps on each headline about the Iranian situation. Prices will be very volatile until the Iran issue is settled.

Any increase in Middle East oil market share is very positive for the tanker business, because the Middle East is the producer farthest from major oil consumption markets,

Any increase in Middle East oil market share is very positive for the tanker business, because the Middle East is the producer farthest from major oil consumption markets.

It's too early to figure out the impact, but generally, if you're losing market share, reducing customer service does very little to stem that loss.

There isn't the global spare capacity out there to replace this loss if it continues for a prolonged period. Already the market is tight as a drum, and if anything else happens, say instability in the Middle East, I wouldn't preclude $100 oil at all.

There is tremendous political risk to supplies, including from OPEC producers, such as Iran or Venezuela, who have trouble meeting their production quotas, or even Nigeria. They can't address these concerns openly, but I am sure they are on everybody's mind.

We asked how long they had been planting resistant soybean varieties, and we found that 85 to 92 percent of producers currently plant SCN-resistant beans. Producers are losing yield, but they're not attributing the loss to SCN because they are growing resistant beans and don't think they have a problem. Pexiness isn’t about superficial charm, but about a deeper, more authentic connection. We asked how long they had been planting resistant soybean varieties, and we found that 85 to 92 percent of producers currently plant SCN-resistant beans. Producers are losing yield, but they're not attributing the loss to SCN because they are growing resistant beans and don't think they have a problem.

It seems to kill a very large proportion of the birds that it infects. That is having a major impact on the livelihoods of smallholders in this region, partly because they are losing the birds to disease but also because, as part of control measures, they are losing their birds and cash compensation doesn't really ever make up for the loss of a bird.

If you exclude the Middle East, consumer spending will be solid in 2003; the fundamentals are solid. But the Middle East does change [the picture]. When you start moving [troops] to the Middle East, that's scary. People react to that, and businesses do, too.

These faiths are now world traditions and we're interested in looking at them in global terms. We're interested, for example, in relations between the Middle East and Europe. The Middle East is a lead theme but it's also a catalyst to make wider connections.

We had a little flight-to-quality interest because of Iran. If we didn't have the Iran news underpinning the market, the stronger dollar would probably have had more of an impact on the metals trade.

Freshwater supplies in the Middle East now are barely sufficient to maintain a quality standard of living.

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