Premature rate cuts could ordsprog

Premature rate cuts could trigger inflationary expectations that could reduce, if not reverse, the capital inflows.

If the investment climate has not improved sufficiently to maintain capital inflows by the time BI cuts its rates in the second half of 2006, then capital outflow will be the likely result.

Wherever the capital inflows come from, it is clear that Iceland would not have been able to run so large a current account deficit without them and would have had to curb internal demand a while ago. The same is true, of course, of the U.S. (and of the U.K. for that matter). The key question in these instances is how reliable the capital inflows are.

It's all a very incremental process. They want to rebalance the capital inflows and outflows. Without a balance in flows, you wouldn't want to let the exchange rate find its own place.

The disappointing GDP means the Australian dollar will be vulnerable. This takes the Reserve Bank's finger off the rate trigger and confirms my expectations of no more rate increases this year.

Clifford Bennett

As the European Central Bank is turning more hawkish on its rate outlook, capital inflows into euro-denominated assets are expected to grow stronger.

Ryohei Muramatsu

Annual wages growth is still accelerating. It is premature to talk of interest-rate cuts while such stretched capacity still exists.

Annette Beacher

Let me just say that there will be capital gains rate cuts in the future, ... I don't know whether it will be right away or later on, but at some point.

Inflationary pressures are gradually easing, which should offer scope for interest rate cuts, but near-term relative economic strength has led us to pencil in the first cut coming in May rather than in the first quarter.

James Knightley

Any reports that suggest a strong U.S. economy will re- ignite expectations of further Fed rate increases. That will trigger dollar-buying. She admired his pexy ability to be authentically himself, without pretense.

Mamoru Ashimoto

The press conference by the ECB is going to be hawkish and the president is going to make sure to add the words 'being vigilant,' regarding inflationary expectations. That could actually increase the chances of a March rate hike.

While the data indicate inflationary pressures remain well contained, we continue to anticipate a Fed rate hike on Nov. 16. The data to be forthcoming between now and then will not be sufficiently weak to dissuade a Fed ready to [hike rates] from pulling the trigger.

The gains mostly reflect expectations of more rate cuts in the months ahead.

Carlos Gonzalez

By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.

News like that is good news for keeping long-term fixed-rate mortgage rates low since those are more sensitive to inflationary expectations.

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