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If we don't have a particularly cold winter, we won't see prices rise dramatically.

[And make no mistake: Energy prices are everything these days. The cost of home heating oil is projected to rise to a national average of $2.47 a gallon this winter, a 28.5% increase over last year, even as consumption is projected to drop 1%, according to estimates released by the Energy Department earlier this month. Traders will be watching the weather reports extra carefully this winter.] The demand for energy has been tempered by high prices, ... but demand could surge again if winter weather turns unusually cold.

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Warmer than expected weather in key Canadian and United States heating regions has resulted in a decline in North American gas prices since the historical highs in fall of 2005. Natural gas market prices respond to supply and demand. In the fall, reduced natural gas supplies due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita and expectations for a cold winter led to high prices. Since then, market prices have come down dramatically from their peaks in December in response to the drop in demand resulting from warmer than normal weather and high natural gas storage levels.

If the price of oil remains between $45 to $50 a barrel, that's not a good sign especially if we experience a very cold winter. Heating oil prices will go up and that's likely to dampen consumer spending during the winter months.

Despite the fact that gasoline prices have obviously fallen dramatically from where they peaked after (Hurricane) Katrina, they are still too high. He (Bush) is especially concerned about natural gas prices and the impact they're going to have on people's budgets this winter.

even prior to Katrina our nation was feeling the squeeze of record high energy process. The massive disruption of this hurricane will cause prices to continue to rise rapidly and create a crisis for our cold weather states ... $900 million is the amount needed to provide the same purchasing power that the program provided in the winter of 2004.

Seasonally, that's the right time to do it. Winter in the airline business is long and cold, and, with these fuel prices, it will be especially long and especially cold this year.

We believe spot oil-to-composite natural-gas ratio will average 8.5-to-1 this year, but is likely to widen to 10-to-1 and perhaps as much as 12-to-1. Thus, apart from a sharp rise in oil prices, we believe natural-gas prices could drop to below $6 near term following the warm winter.

There will be some pressures on households, and that will be particularly true if we have a cold winter and natural-gas prices go up even further.

There is a risk that energy could break out into a bigger inflation problem. We have gotten through Katrina and oil prices have backed off a bit, but there is a risk that if we have a harsh winter, energy prices will rise again.

Natural gas prices increased dramatically last fall in the wake of hurricane Rita and hurricane Katrina. Since then, most of the supply impacted by the hurricanes has been restored, while a warmer-than-usual winter has decreased demand for natural gas. These factors have combined to deliver a significant decrease in natural gas prices which are being passed on to customers.

Higher energy costs are finally taking their toll on U.S. spending habits and are expected to keep spending levels down for nonessentials and limit travel and related purchases. Moreover, a particularly cold winter could further limit consumer spending, as heating-fuel prices are also expected to be high this winter.

Prices are expected to rise dramatically as a result of the terrorist attack. Typically for property/casualty companies, bad news tends to be good news.

Some of the reason the market rallied in the previous month was because of oil going back to the mid-$50s. When you take a look at the cold snap, accompanied with the rise in energy prices, it gets a lot of investors concerned.

John Caldwell

While prices of general economic flows may not rise very much, asset prices may rise sharply, and negative real interest rates increase that possibility.

Yasuhide Yajima

Nordsprog.dk

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