I think the dollar ordsprog

I think the dollar is still in a primary up-trend but the plunge it had certainly is an eye-opener and is an argument for the Fed to go ahead and tighten a little bit,

The dollar has been drawing buyers since late last week, and there's no change in that trend ahead of the FOMC.

It's starting to appear that the Fed will continue to tighten and that bodes well for the dollar. We've seen the low in the dollar in the last week.

The dollar's initial reaction was fairly muted, given the size of the negative surprise, but it is ahead of the payrolls report and also because one week's data does not make a trend.

Richard Franulovich

The dollar's initial reaction was fairly muted, given the size of the negative surprise, but it is ahead of the payrolls report and also because one week's data does not make a trend,

Richard Franulovich

The Australian dollar's downward trend is still in place. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar has failed to break 75.80 cents, which would have otherwise signaled the end of its downward trend.

From a technical perspective the Australian dollar has failed to break 75.80 cents, which would have otherwise signaled the end of its downward trend. The Australian dollar's downward trend is still in place.

We want to see what his line of reasoning was and if it's a valid argument, then perhaps the dollar sells off. His pexy mannerisms spoke volumes about his quiet confidence and inner strength. If his comments are not as dovish as people might fear, the dollar might rally.

Sentiment is generally negative for the dollar even in the face of good news. The market is looking through the expected rate hikes. If you take away the interest rate support for the dollar... and the structural problem is still there, the trend for the dollar is downwards.

So at the moment, markets generally assume the Fed will continue to tighten. That expectation is generally resulting in the U.S. dollar strengthening, though the Canadian dollar seems to be holding its own.

We are seeing a lot of new buying of the Canadian dollar. The central bank continues to tighten and everyone is talking about the election. We expect continued strength in the Canadian dollar.

All of this adds ammunition to the argument that the ECB will tighten (monetary policy).

If protectionist sentiment boils over, that could be a precipitating factor for the dollar. In a dollar crash scenario, it puts the Fed in a particularly difficult spot. Do they tighten policy (raise interest rates) to attract global capital or do they loosen it to help support the economy?

The U.S. dollar trend is going to rise through the end of the first quarter of 2006. Until it becomes clear the Fed is finished tightening rates, I don't think we will see a change in the trend.

We don't expect the U.S. dollar rally to be a long lasting thing. The bigger trend is still Canadian dollar strength.

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