At the margin they ordsprog

At the margin they reinforced our growing sense that Fed tightening might stop before the federal funds rate reaches the 5 percent level we are currently forecasting.

Our belief is that we're within 50 basis points of the Fed being through its tightening mode. Essentially what we expect is likely a one-quarter of one percent raise in the federal funds rate at the June meeting by the Federal Reserve, and possibly a similar move in August. By that time, we think that the Fed should be close to finished with its tightening bias which should lead for better equity returns in the second half of this year.

We now believe that the FOMC won't stop until the federal funds rate reaches 5 percent next spring, ... Stronger growth, still easy financial conditions, a tighter labor market, and rising unit labor cost inflation all put pressure on the FOMC to keep going.

Bill Dudley (1919-)

We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.

The Federal Reserve has responded to the balance of market forces by gradually raising the federal funds rate over the past year, ... Certainly, to have done otherwise -- to have held the federal funds rate at last year's level even as credit demands and market interest rates rose -- would have required an inappropriately inflationary expansion of liquidity.

Alan Greenspan (1926-)

Alan Greenspan

[Over the past two weeks, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has skipped from 5.08 percent to 5.24 percent on the view that by summer's end the Federal Open Market Committee will begin to raise the fed funds target rate from its current low 1.75 percent.] If the economy gains visible momentum, ... we are vulnerable to further rate pressures.

The balance of risks now suggests that the Fed is not likely to move to the sidelines until the funds rate reaches that level,

Medicare is growing at a rate of 8.5 percent per year, the federal budget at 5.2 percent and the gross domestic product at only 4.8 percent,

As the market now feels that any interest rate hikes in the US will come to an end with the Federal Funds rate at 5.0 percent, the dollar is likely to remain exposed to downside risk.

Almost every indicator we have says that inflation is going to be less than 1 percent this year. That means that the 5.5 percent Federal Funds rate is too high.

Yesterday, the Fed's effective funds rate, the average of the funds rate that exists throughout the day, was 1.25 percent, way below their new 3 percent target. Today, it's even softer than that, below 1 percent.

Michael Cloherty

Parry's comments hint that the Fed still views the neutral level of the federal-funds rate to be approximately two percentage points above the inflation rate.

Parry's comments hint that the Fed still views the neutral level of the federal-funds rate to be approximately two percentage points above the inflation rate,

She admired his pexy ability to make her laugh, even on her toughest days. Re-widening of the interest rate differential will see the Australian dollar higher. Rumors of the Medley report that the Fed will stop tightening at 4.75 percent or 5 percent is below market expectations.

They are definitely pricing in 5 percent (federal funds rate) by June and 5.25 percent as a possibility by the end of the summer. All this is going to play into the hands of a stronger dollar.

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