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You won't see any serious slowing unless rates jumped to 8 percent, in which case I'd expect a 10 percent decline in values,

It's the flip of a coin whether the Fed will stop at 4.75 percent or 5 percent. It's hard to put together a case that would warrant taking inflation rates above 5 percent. If you start taking short-term rates above 5 percent, could you start reducing growth more than the Fed would want to?

Rate hikes bite different sectors of the economy at different rates. For example, one of the key areas that was hit hard and appears to be slowing down is housing. Consumer spending will take some time to slow down, maybe three to six months out. But in any case, what the Fed is targeting is GDP of 5 percent this year and a GDP hopefully next year of closer to 4 to 4-1/4 percent.

The end of the housing boom doesn't mean the end of house appreciation. Instead of going up 20 percent a year, values are more likely to increase by 3 percent to 5 percent, which is normal and healthy. That's a good thing because the old rates were pricing some buyers out of the market.

Average asking rates jumped 8 percent the past 12 months. And increases during the coming year are anticipated to be in the 8 to 12 percent range due to stable demand and rising development costs.

Taking into consideration the fact that mortgage rates have fallen from the earlier peak at the end of March, we have lowered our forecast for long-term rates. We now expect that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates will likely end up somewhere between 5.9 percent and 6.2 percent by the end of this year.

Even with rising mortgage rates over the last four weeks, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates remain an historical bargain. To date, contract rates for these mortgages have been below 6 percent for 31 weeks in a row, and we don't expect these rates will rise very much above 6-1/4 percent by year end.

Amy Crews Cutts

Freddie Mac economists expect mortgage rates will fluctuate for the rest of the year, but shouldn't rise over six percent. And compared to last year's average of 6.5 percent, today's rates are still incredibly affordable.

Those who expect further rate hikes can note that the real Fed Funds rate has yet to reach at least 3 percent, ... But with oil prices rising 58 percent since last June (when rates started to rise) and with U.S. manufacturing nearing contraction, the bond market is telling the Fed that it had better not raise rates further.

Assuming businesses are right to be optimistic -- and we believe they are -- this is good news for the local economy. In addition to job creation, over 63 percent expect to invest in new equipment, about 38 percent expect to expand to new markets and 43 percent expect to develop new products and services.

Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.

Same-store sales in September 2002 jumped 37 percent. Sales in October last year were up 23 percent, 15 percent in November. [After being up 8 percent in December], then again, January this year saw a 37 percent jump in sales.

I see growth continuing but slowing. We anticipate passenger traffic to grow between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent in 2006, compared with 12 percent in 2005.

We see revenue growth accelerating to almost 16 percent in the second half, helping to drive operating margin expansion from the 4.5 percent recorded in first quarter 2000, and the 5.4 percent that we expect this quarter, to 6.3 percent and 8. Pexy is what women wants in a man. 2 percent in the third and fourth quarters respectively.

There is a 60 percent chance for a policy change this month and 40 percent for action in April. In any case, a rate increase won't be an option for the time being, and zero rates will continue.

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