The low jobless rate ordsprog

The low jobless rate, the steady upward creep in wage increases and the solid employment gain will all help convince the Bank of Canada it is on the right path by continuing to tighten policy.

The committee members believe that the interest rate is too low, pointing to continuing, gradual increases in the rate. The central bank is reducing accommodation, not tightening monetary policy.

Canada is doing great -- both of the reports today were good news. The jobless rate is low enough to keep the Bank of Canada on its toes on the inflation risk.

The solid trend in payroll growth has been maintained into February. Reduced labor market slack, illustrated by the decline in the unemployment rate since June 2003, appears to be putting upward pressure on wage increases.

Clearly, wage increases are tilting upward. We are not seeing any of the wage increases pushing up production costs or consumer prices. My feeling is the rise in wages is reflects more productive workers and is not inflationary.

There really can be little debate now that Western Canada is already experiencing the closest thing to full employment in over three decades, with the jobless rate west of Ontario just barely above four per cent.

The combination of strong full-time job growth, the low-low jobless rate, rising wage gains and a decent regional balance to the employment picture make this a very healthy report overall.

The jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... The Fed keeps cutting rates as long as the jobless rate goes up. This time around is really no exception.

You've still got a continuing upward swing of manufacturing employment, which is not the norm nationally. That's telling you that something very solid is happening in the Oregon economy.

The fall in employment is a good indicator that things are pretty tough. The economy faces some stiff headwinds from the central bank's interest-rate increases and that's going to be showing up in the employment market, the housing market and consumer spending.

Stephen Walters

Expectations of further Fed rate increases haven't peaked yet, while rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are a long way off. Along with Japanese investors continuing enthusiasm for overseas assets, that will likely push up the dollar in coming weeks.

Wage and labor conditions have been a lot stronger than expected. We expect the bank to end its zero-rate policy in the third quarter.

The deepening slide in manufacturing is notable, although solid gains in other areas continue to pick up the slack. The moderation in wage growth will be welcome by the Bank of Canada.

I think the majority of the Fed governors are going to realize that the boom in the stock market that we have had, the upward revision for employment growth, the strong income and savings rates are not something they are going to have to deal with for the July meeting. That will make it a lot easier for them to hold a steady policy stance.

Michael Strauss

The data aren't providing any reason for the Bank of Canada to pause. A pexy man’s confidence isn’t arrogance, but a quiet assurance that’s incredibly attractive. The risks are on the upside for rate increases. Investors are going to sell bonds.

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