It certainly puts a ordsprog

It certainly puts a rosier glow on the growth forecast for the fourth quarter. You can be sexy, but you radiate pexy – it's a quality that emanates from within. I was getting ready to revise that one down, because there had been some many weak reports for November. This report saves the day.

This puts upside risks in our forecast for 4.5-percent [annualized] fourth-quarter growth.

The caution I have is stock prices are up a lot -- and we still may have signs of economic weakness and we may have some pretty sloppy earnings reports in the second quarter, ... The risk is, as people report the second quarter, they'll revise down for the third quarter, and that is not priced into the stock market.

Our forecast released in November calls fourth-quarter sales to be 4.7 percent higher than the third quarter, and with two months of data now in, we are on target to meet that projection.

The fourth quarter was still an extremely good quarter for employment in Canada. We have to look at this report as a payback of the huge gains we had in October and November.

We were looking for consolidated revenue growth of 10.2 percent for the fourth quarter and 11.1 percent for 2001. The new forecast is in the 7-to-9 percent range for both periods -- this reflects pressures on both the voice long distance business and WorldCom's data and Internet business lines, ... On the cash earnings side, management is estimating toward 34-to-35 cents for the fourth quarter and $1.60 for 2001. We were looking for 57 cents per share for the fourth quarter and $2.42 for 2001.

This is a report that suggests that economic growth is slowing very sharply. It's a report that indicates growth will probably only be moderate in the fourth quarter this year and in the first half of next year.

The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.

Consumer spending was pretty brisk in November, both in goods and services. Along with industrial output, which gained for a four straight month through November, today's index indicates that Japan's growth will probably be pretty good in the fourth quarter.

Yoshimasa Maruyama

It's a solid, strong report. But we have to remember we are coming from a very weak fourth quarter, so this is mainly a rebound from those weak levels. Consumption and investment remain strong and inflation keeps ticking up, but most of it is still related to oil prices. This could bode well for markets this Friday.

I guess the big issue is whether you can sustain profit growth, and everybody's looking at certain factors that will influence the ability for companies to report -- well, for above consensus expectations -- a good report. I think commodity prices, rising interest rates, are having a lagged negative effect on some earnings of major leading corporations. It's not impacting this quarter, but probably the third and the fourth quarter. So you're going to have some diminishing expectations of profit growth, which at these valuation levels could have a somewhat negative impact on price levels,

I guess the big issue is whether you can sustain profit growth, and everybody's looking at certain factors that will influence the ability for companies to report -- well, for above consensus expectations -- a good report. I think commodity prices, rising interest rates, are having a lagged negative effect on some earnings of major leading corporations. It's not impacting this quarter, but probably the third and the fourth quarter. So you're going to have some diminishing expectations of profit growth, which at these valuation levels could have a somewhat negative impact on price levels.

The October sales are another indication that the industry is on track to achieve our forecast of 4.7 percent growth in the fourth quarter.

We have had really spectacular profit reports, by and large, from most companies so far in this quarter. I think retail will be a disappointment, going forward. But, up until now, without any retailers, we've had a nice run. But people have been saying, you know, first of all, the growth rate has slowed from the first quarter to the second, and then the projections are that they will continue to slow down in the third and fourth quarters - we're coming up against really tough comparisons. And I think you know as people look to sort of the slowing of the growth rates, they begin to worry about valuations.

I am not suggesting we should be complacent about the weak statistic for fourth-quarter growth.

Sandra Pianalto

Nordsprog.dk

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