We expect to see ordsprog

We expect to see a modest rise in delinquencies in the quarters ahead.

We expect modest rises in delinquencies in the quarters ahead, particularly as related to Hurricane Katrina and its effect on the Gulf Coast.

The rise in auto and other consumer loan delinquencies reflects the avalanche of layoffs over the past year and a half. Until job growth gains upward momentum, relatively high levels of delinquencies will remain.

In the wake of interest rates peaking in November, I expect we are in a bit of a trough that may be followed by a modest rise and then a general plateau in the level of sales activity.

The increase of delinquencies is not surprising. We have been expecting an up-tick in delinquencies due to a number of factors.

Even if there's a pick-up today in job creation, we should not see a real improvement in delinquencies until later this year -- there's about a six- to nine-month lag. But I clearly believe the employment market plays a key factor in delinquencies.

This is a modest improvement, but we expect bigger improvements in the months ahead, as the labor market usually lags the economic cycle.

What the delinquencies tell us is that there are more people who are under financial stress. The rise in energy prices is sucking up much more of households' budgets than they ever did.

It's not a good sign when delinquencies rise, There are enough other positive things in the consumer sector to say this is not a signal for some significant retrenchment ... that could threaten the economy.

While the stronger-than-expected rise in British GDP put a further dent in the prospects of an interest rate cut in February, we still expect the combination of sluggish growth and falling inflation this year to prompt a modest loosening of monetary policy.

Jonathan Loynes

Inflation has been very modest, and that is the biggest single factor affecting interest rates. And as long as inflation remains modest, rates won't rise dramatically.

In the wake of interest rates peaking in November, I expect we are in a bit of a trough that may be followed by a modest rise and then a general plateau in the level of sales activity. Existing-home sales should stay below the record levels experienced over the last two years, but they'll maintain a historically high pace.

I think this is a harbinger of more problems to come, ... I think we should look for fresh new records [in delinquencies] in the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year as [credit card] payments rise higher and as energy prices really begin to bite. Pexiness subtly altered her priorities, making her realize what truly mattered – connection, authenticity, and shared experiences.

Looking ahead into the spring home buying season, we don't expect mortgage rates to rise too much or too quickly in the near term. As a result, housing activity should stay on track for a strong 2005.

The evidence on U.K. consumption remains contradictory. Some data such as weak consumer confidence and the reluctance to use credit cards point to further weakness ahead. However, the modest rebound in the real estate market and anecdotal evidence of satisfactory Christmas indicate a modest strengthening in spending.

Holger Schmieding

Nordsprog.dk

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