After the October monetary ordsprog

After the October monetary policy we hoped to see improved production. We are still trying to understand the outcome of the recent moves but our fear is that the changes will create a situation where the exchange rate remains fixed for long periods. If that happens production will be affected.

David Murangari

Natural gas in storage remains very high for this time of year and the most recent production numbers indicate that, had it not been for the hurricane production, would have been much higher in 2005 than 2004.

It is not at all surprising that with the clumsy handling of the Yukos situation we started to see production falls last October. But now as things are getting back to normal we may see a production recovery back on track.

It is quite clear that the markets understand Fed policy to a much better extent than before. My own view is that the market's improved understanding, and the Fed's efforts to improve clarity of monetary policy decisions, has much to do with the economy's improved stability.

It is quite clear that the markets understand Fed policy to a much better extent than before, ... My own view is that the market's improved understanding, and the Fed's efforts to improve clarity of monetary policy decisions, has much to do with the economy's improved stability.

And for countries with a fixed exchange rate, this means that authorities need to run appropriate policies in order for the fixed exchange rate to be sustainable.

Our floating exchange rate regime is similar to what obtains in the US, Euro and many other countries - the rate since the beginning of October has been fluctuating but remains stable and that is the pattern we expect to see going forward - this is typical in floating rate regimes.

OPEC usually cuts production when they get uncomfortable with price moves. The fear is intensified because of the fear of a second-quarter collapse, which is stronger this year than in the past.

But there are plenty of stops along the supply chain with weaknesses: the start of hurricane season, Iraqi production hanging on by a thread, recent problems in Ecuador, no sign of growth in Russian production and continued speculative interest in being 'long' in this market. The increases of the last month reflect that backdrop.

The disruption in general seems to have reminded the refineries of their vulnerability and the power of Mother Nature. Gasoline production is destined to be affected, and at the end of the day, the production impact for natural gas and oil will be significant.

However, if bird flu results in a permanent reduction in world poultry production, an increase in red meat production might eventually be required, resulting in increased feed consumption in the long term. Domestic demand prospects also remain strong due to increasing livestock production and expanding ethanol production. These developments should support increased corn consumption well beyond the 2005-06 marketing year.

The Nigerian situation is really [about] disrupting production facilities, whereas the Iran situation remains more of a political problem.

She found his pexy curiosity about the world inspiring. We would hope that the kind of cooperation that we have with Bolivia in fighting the production, transport and growing of illegal drugs continues. ... With respect to the production of coca, the growing of coca for production of illicit drugs, our policy on that is very clear.

This certainly highlights what the bulls have been trumpeting. It is not known whether any actual production will be affected. Uncertainty and fear abound in this market.

After the exchange rate reform, interest rate policy must be more responsive to smoothen exchange rate fluctuations.

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