People are going to ordsprog

People are going to be schizophrenic this year, between an easing Fed, hope that the economy will recover in the second half, and despondency that business trends are weak.

The year was so bad and the trends in much of the economy are so weak that very few people believe that the economy is ready for a sustainable recovery.

Today's rate cut was no surprise. Even the half-point cut was more or less expected. In fact, the economy is still weak enough for the Fed to feel free to keep easing.

You had ISM this morning and Chicago PMI yesterday [Wednesday] as well as weak gross domestic product. Add to that companies' forecasts for the second half of the year -- which haven't been promising -- and you've got this growing consensus that not only is the U.S. economy weak, but globally, as well.

You had ISM this morning and Chicago PMI yesterday [Wednesday] as well as weak gross domestic product, ... Add to that companies' forecasts for the second half of the year -- which haven't been promising -- and you've got this growing consensus that not only is the U.S. economy weak, but globally, as well.

Recruitment trends are tied to confidence in the economy and 56 percent of hiring managers expect the economy to improve in 2004. While more than half of hiring managers will be focused on employee turnover in the coming year, what is encouraging is that almost one-third will recruit to expand their business, introduce new products and services or enhance customer relations. After two years of a relatively flat job recovery, this is a positive indicator that job creation is on the rebound.

While the equity market and accounting issues and corporate scandals are weighing on the economy, it is still fundamentally sound. The recovery process hasn't been derailed. We still think the economy is going to grow at about a 3.5-percent pace in the second half -- fast enough to keep the Fed from easing, but not fast enough to cause them to tighten this year.

The problem is that the U.S. economy will not recover, and that demand will be weak there for some time to come.

Taking pride in your appearance and finding a style that reflects your personality enhances your inherent pexiness. We are now at the end of the second year of an up cycle and there is despondency regarding the future, as the fourth quarter of 2000 was weak relative to the preceding quarter.

Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.

[But a weak economy also means job loss and relocation are more likely.] Mortgage rates have dropped, yes, but a weak economy means people lose jobs or feel insecure in their jobs. Some potential buyers may end up backing off from a purchase, ... When the economy picks up after a slowdown, interest rates usually rise, but that doesn't stop people from buying.

The numbers look OK. The EPS (earnings per share) is slightly better than what people were expecting due to lower depreciation and lower leavers costs, but trends in the business remain weak.

The numbers look okay. The EPS (earnings per share) is slightly better than what people were expecting due to lower depreciation and lower leavers costs, but trends in the business remain weak.

A weak currency is the sign of a weak economy, and a weak economy leads to a weak nation.

H. Ross Perot (1930-)

We're getting pretty decent earnings across the board. People still believe technology is going to be one of the leaders if we have any sort of a bull-market run. Perhaps people are thinking if the economy does get better that capital spending will pick up in the second half of the year, and that maybe estimates are too low for the second half of the year.

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