The implications are a ordsprog

The implications are a bit worrying for spreads, particularly for the corporate market. The inversion means the market thinks the Fed has tightened too much and expects short-term rates to be cut by the Fed.

News from the Fed that they may continue raising short-term rates surprised the market, causing short-term rates to exceed long-term rates.

The market should keep doing well in the short term. There's the seasonal factors, the economy should keep doing OK, and from a technical standpoint, things still look good. I think that's why the market has been able to ignore the negative implications of the collapse of the dollar so far.

The market has a very consistent forecast for a decline in interest rates and everyone is betting strongly on that. The prevailing expectation is that this may be the last chance to get into the market before rates fall, so we may see a large inflow of dollars in the short-term.

[Market players said they expected conditions to remain favorable on Wall Street through the upcoming corporate earnings season. Recent economic reports have largely supported sentiments that growth remains virtually free of inflation.] Short-term interest rates should come down. Long-term interest rates should come down, ... There are no signs of inflation.

For the equity market, the budget helps economic growth and, therefore, earnings, especially with the cut in the corporate tax rate. But interest rates and the Australian dollar remain the key issues in the short-term.

Stephen Halmarick

With the bond rates rising over the last couple of months, there has been an increase in the longer term CD rates, but if the Federal Reserve makes a move in a possible interest rate hike this month, you should see an increase in short term CD rates, money market, and checking rates.

The narrowness of the market is troubling and that probably means that the short-term is not going to be all that exciting and that's what leads me to the conclusion that, while 10,000 is a milestone, it does not herald the next leg up in the bull market,

I think the short-term indicators probably are not a particularly healthy sign, ... Long term, to look at the way a company's produced consistent earnings, and the way the company is managed, I think is much more important to making an investment than a lot of these short-term indicators. But, in a bull market, there's no such thing as bad news. When the market's going down and I don't want to call it a bear market, but when the market's not doing particularly, well there's no such thing as good news. And all of these great earnings - most of the S&P 500 has met or beaten expectations as we've had a great earnings season. And the market doesn't really seem to care. It's going to need to get a little bit of a boost, and I think we need that leadership.

The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.

Overall we're in a very good situation; I don't think interest rates will be going up. Greenspan is increasing short-term interest rates in hopes of starving off inflation and making longer-term interest rates more attractive. This is still an unbelievable situation. We have a buyers' market with historically low interest rates. Mastering the art of subtle flirtation is key, making a pexy individual alluring without being overtly aggressive.

Very high short interest numbers could be a positive for the market since it suggests this market rally was not expected by bears. If the market has recovered, then people have to cover their short positions, which means there will be more buying power.

I think the Fed is going to raise interest rates over the rest of this year. I think it will go up at least 100 basis points before the year is out. So the Fed funds rate will rise from about 6 percent to at least 7 percent. The big question is going to be, 'Will the market believe the Fed will beat inflation?' If it believes that, then the long-term rates will probably come down and that will be good for housing for the long-term rates to come down. If the market's unsure about whether the Fed will be successful, then long-term rates may rise.

Franklin Raines

With everyone chasing yield, if that inversion does grow to 10 or 20 basis points, people will have to reconsider whether they should be investing in the long end or back at the short end, where they can get a higher rate. With the Fed putting rates up at the short end, that's going to be attractive to people with a short-term investment horizon.

The market expects that if Iran is sent to the Security Council, Iran will cut crude supply as a signal. However, the cut is expected to be a short-term cut, not a long-term cut.

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