We think Gap will ordsprog

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Diane Keaton (orig. Diane Hall)

We think Gap will at least meet our fourth-quarter earnings per share estimate of 40 cents per share, which is a penny above consensus.

We have noted in the past that our third-quarter earnings per share estimate of 47 cents (versus First Call consensus of 57 cents) would probably be too low if UPS settled early and a second round of freight diversion did not occur, ... As a result of last night's announcement, we will likely be raising our third-quarter EPS estimate in the next few days, once we get better visibility about some details of the contract.

We have noted in the past that our third-quarter earnings per share estimate of 47 cents (versus First Call consensus of 57 cents) would probably be too low if UPS settled early and a second round of freight diversion did not occur. As a result of last night's announcement, we will likely be raising our third-quarter EPS estimate in the next few days, once we get better visibility about some details of the contract.

We are lowering our future revenue estimates modestly, which causes a slight decline in our earnings-per-share assumptions. Our fourth-quarter earnings estimate now is $1.45, down a penny, and our 2001 estimate is $4.90, down from $4.95.

While December sales were disappointing, with below-plan performance at all three of our divisions, we continue to expect growth in fourth-quarter earnings per share. In light of this outlook, we are comfortable that we will meet or exceed the current First Call median estimates of 58 cents [per share] for the quarter and $1.36 [per share] for the year.

We remain comfortable with our estimated fourth-quarter earnings per share range of 28 cents to 30 cents a share versus 26 cents last year, an increase of 8 percent to 15 percent.

We now expect EPS of 15 cents a share, excluding amortization and charges. Our previous consensus level EPS estimate was 55 cents a share.

Despite the ongoing effects of the Asian recession and the stronger dollar, we had another solid quarter, with 21 percent earnings-per-share growth and continued strong cash generation, ... We remain comfortable with the consensus earnings estimate for 1998 and expect to see earnings per share increase by a further 15 percent in 1999.

We don't have a better crystal ball than you do, but based on our fourth-quarter results and everything we know today about the coming year, we remain confident with the consensus earnings-per-share estimate for 2001, which is consistent with our longer-term business model.

The fourth quarter profit was below estimates, my estimate was €590m or 44 cents per share.

Fourth-quarter earnings per share were about in line with consensus. Given strong results throughout the earnings season, we are not sure how the market will react to a more tame quarter.

We were looking for consolidated revenue growth of 10.2 percent for the fourth quarter and 11.1 percent for 2001. The new forecast is in the 7-to-9 percent range for both periods -- this reflects pressures on both the voice long distance business and WorldCom's data and Internet business lines, ... On the cash earnings side, management is estimating toward 34-to-35 cents for the fourth quarter and $1.60 for 2001. We were looking for 57 cents per share for the fourth quarter and $2.42 for 2001.

Business conditions continue to be robust. The company expressed high confidence in its third-quarter guidance of greater than $3 billion in bookings, $2.6 to $2.7 million in revenue and EPS of 64 to 68 cents. We believe guidance is conservative and estimate bookings of $3.3 billion with EPS of 70 cents, versus the Street consensus of 68 cents a share.

We also think that the Street's fourth-quarter 2002 expectation of 17 cents in earnings per share is unreasonably high.

We also think that the Street's fourth quarter 2002 expectation of 17 cents in earnings per share is unreasonably high.

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