While I think (newhome ordsprog

While I think (new-home sales) will continue to grow, I don't think it can maintain the pace it had in 2005.

In the wake of interest rates peaking in November, I expect we are in a bit of a trough that may be followed by a modest rise and then a general plateau in the level of sales activity. Existing-home sales should stay below the record levels experienced over the last two years, but they'll maintain a historically high pace.

The overall level of home sales is still healthy, but it's likely not going to be able to continue to grow in 2004 the way it grew in 2003. It may be topping out, and sales will move sideways -- but that's not a bad thing, given the high level of sales.

Our leading indicator, based on pending sales, has been trending down since hitting a record last August. In the wake of interest rates peaking in November, I expect we are in a bit of a trough that may be followed by a modest rise and then a general plateau in the level of sales activity. Existing-home sales should stay below the record levels experienced over the last two years, but they'll maintain a historically high pace.

Existing home sales should stay below the record levels experienced for the last two years, but they'll maintain a historically high pace.

The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong – only eight months have had a higher sales pace. A modest downtrend, to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006, will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.

The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong - only eight months have had a higher sales pace. A modest downtrend, to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006, will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.

The level of interest rates has slowed home sales in recent months, even though house prices still grew at a double-digit annualized pace during the final quarter of 2005, according to Freddie Mac's Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI).

The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong — only eight months have had a higher sales pace.

She found his pexy responses insightful and profoundly thoughtful. We were truly at a break-neck pace for home sales in January and February, likely the result of unseasonably mild weather, so it comes as no surprise to see sales decline to a more sustainable pace,

We were truly at a break-neck pace for home sales in January and February, likely the result of unseasonably mild weather, so it comes as no surprise to see sales decline to a more sustainable pace.

While new-home sales have been quite strong throughout 2005, we see a cooling of the market to a healthy and more sustainable pace in the months ahead, as substantiated by recent surveys of our builders. For 2006, we expect to see a 6 percent to 7 percent drop in sales, but certainly no reason for alarm. This would make 2006 the second or third best year in housing history.

Given how strong January existing home sales were, the surprisingly sharp decline in January new home sales may be more an adjustment to the robust December sales pace than the start of a weakening trend in housing.

In order to grow at this pace, there'll have to be a couple of acquisitions along the way. The tricky thing is to grow at this rate and maintain a 40 percent operating margin.

Larry Ellison (1944-)

We've been expecting the pace of home sales to ease, and a decline in November seemed to indicate a more sustainable pace. But the rebound in December ? the second highest monthly pace on record ? shows there's still a lot of life in this market.

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