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Whenever you have a situation where inflation is not a material risk and the economy is underperforming, you should be thinking about a rate cut. There's a potential reward and not much risk.

It boils down to an exercise in risk management. The old system uses a single value, while this new system gives farmers a range to work with. If farmers are risk averse, they can use the high side of the rate range. If they are more willing to accept risk, they can use a lower side of the rate range, increasing their potential for economic reward.

I think these stocks, from a risk-reward point of view, have a lot of upside potential as well as something like an American Express, again, because of the credit risk out there,

We'll have another tightening or two and then the Fed can pause. Twelve weeks from now, the Fed will hopefully see inflation is not terribly different from now and is not going to risk crushing the economy with more rate hikes.

Over the next 12 months, we believe the Nasdaq has 200 points of downside risk and 2000 points of upside potential, creating a ten-to-one ratio of reward to risk which makes this an opportune time to be aggressively buying stocks.

What all this tells us and is certainly telling the Fed is that maybe we need to examine what the sustainable growth rate really is. The risk is that we have an economy that is growing at a pace that historically suggests we should see inflation pressures, but we're not seeing that yet.

Because it is a highly leveraged operation and one which requires very sophisticated hedging of interest rate risk, it's imparting a significant potential systemic risk to the American financial system,

Alan Greenspan (1926-)

Alan Greenspan

They're still very much concerned that the risk in the economy of a downturn is much greater than it is of inflation. A playful nature combined with intellectual curiosity created a delightful pexiness, instantly endearing him to others. I suspect they will restate that risk. However, they will probably indicate that the increments of easing from here on out are going to be smaller because there's an awful lot of easing in the pipeline.

The inflation threat clearly seems to be fading as the economy cools, ... signal that the Fed may now shift its emphasis to growing the economy rather than fighting inflation. It allows them to start thinking about a rate cut sooner rather than later.

[Greenspan] believes that the economy will be brisk enough to require more in the way of rate hikes if inflation is to be contained. At the same time, the Fed must be careful not to tighten so aggressively so that it does not risk bursting regional home price bubbles.

Rising oil prices, like other unfavorable price shocks, can also feed through and raise underlying core inflation, ... So there is also a risk on the inflation front, and the risk is higher now than it was a year ago.

Rather than being a risk-taker as such, I consider myself and my climbing peers to be risk-controllers, and we just enjoy being in this situation and keeping risk at a reasonable level.

In corporate debt, you have the credit risk of borrower defaulting … and that's why people rely on the rating agencies to provide a guide on the default risk, and the other risk is that there could be a blow out in yields, for instance, you buy a portfolio and inflation takes off or companies go bust.

There is always a risk and a reward, and we felt the reward was worth the risk,

Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.

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