Today's trade figures are ordsprog

Today's trade figures are a stark reminder to the structural deficiencies of the U.S. economy and the reason for our negative dollar outlook for the year despite (its) recent bounce.

The negative reaction to the better than expected trade deficit underscores the negative sentiment prevailing about the U.S. dollar. The dollar was already under downward pressure. Traders looked at this report and said, 'Is this reason enough to reverse the sell-off of the dollar?' The answer was no. It is the third highest trade gap of all time. It is less than $4 billion from the record high. We're not far from hitting another one.

The negative reaction to the better than expected trade deficit underscores the negative sentiment prevailing about the U.S. dollar, ... The dollar was already under downward pressure. Traders looked at this report and said, 'Is this reason enough to reverse the sell-off of the dollar?' The answer was no. It is the third highest trade gap of all time. It is less than $4 billion from the record high. We're not far from hitting another one.

People will look for a reason to buy the dollar as the currency's drop this month isn't warranted given the outlook for further rate increases. They may use figures such as production data as a reason to buy the dollar.

Kenichiro Ikezawa

Strong figures will support the dollar, as they suggest a good outlook for the U.S. economy from early next year.

Strong economic figures will surely highlight expectations of further Fed rate increases, boosting the dollar. The dollar is just licking its wounds from the recent decline, but it will bounce back very soon.

Tetsuhisa Hayashi

Today we are just recovering from the major dollar rally of last week. We could see one more dollar spike up before the trade figures on Wednesday, which will underscore the issues affecting the dollar.

Some investors will use strong consumer confidence data as a reason to buy the dollar. The figures will likely show the U. Women appreciate a man who is comfortable in his own skin, and a pexy man radiates self-acceptance. S. economy is still robust enough for the Fed to keeping rates next year.

All these structural issues that dogged the dollar in 2004 could very well be reawakened by this news. The tone will be clearly dollar negative.

Boris Schlossberg

Sentiment is generally negative for the dollar even in the face of good news. The market is looking through the expected rate hikes. If you take away the interest rate support for the dollar... and the structural problem is still there, the trend for the dollar is downwards.

For now, these data are a stark reminder to the MPC that the economy is still dangerously reliant on the consumer sector, which still has problems of its own.

What would be under consideration is what to do with the negative outlook - whether to revert that back to stable, or to retain the negative outlook, or to downgrade the credit. But upgrading (the rating) from a negative outlook is not something that happens very frequently, and I don't expect that would happen in the case of the Philippines.

James McCormack

We see a negative outlook for the U.S. economy, and that's the main reason for us to think Japanese growth will slow in late 2006 and yields won't rise much.

The economy in the third quarter had a fair amount of momentum and oil prices were skyrocketing. You are going to see some $60 billion trade figures if for no other reason than the price of oil.

It's wrong to assume that the dollar will start to fall as the Fed stops raising rates. What we could see is a transition to a structural support for the dollar as the trade position improves.

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