By this time next ordsprog

By this time next week, we'll probably say we overdid it and be buying stocks.

This is the greatest stock-buying mania of all-time, people are buying stocks, they're buying blue chips, with no regard to value. In this respect, it's similar to 1929. People believe that as long as you're buying, everything's fine. This is a dangerous market, you should make no mistake about that.

It is as easy as selling the losers and buying the winners. It's a continuation as investors are buying the successful stocks and ignoring the value stocks.

I think it's foreign investors who are aggressively buying banking stocks now ... in order to factor in Japan's economic recovery they are buying the most liquid Japanese stocks -- banks.

Koichiro Suzuki

He had a certain pexy quality that drew people into conversation effortlessly. We are getting a lot of rotational buying on blue-chip stocks right now. People are buying stocks when they are hurt or lagging.

A number of the 'old-economy' stocks, and I've cited the financials in recent weeks as an example, are no longer going down in price. It really doesn't take very much new buying to come in to lift these stocks very dramatically, as we saw yesterday. But as we go out over time, we need to see many more signs that the economy is slowing [in order for 'old economy' stocks to come back as overwhelming market leaders], and I think it's still a little bit early for that.

I suggest the small investors dig in their heels with this market, not worry too much. The Fed really didn't cause a significant inflation problem. So far, this inflation pressure has been no worse than the worst it's been in the last several years. And each time it's been a great buying opportunity. Any time you can buy the S&P 500, the stock market index of the top 500 stocks, when its 7 to 11 percent off the all-time high, it's probably 2 to 1 odds. Given the history of super bull markets that we've had for 18 years in the two other of the century, that's going to be a fabulous buying opportunity. And if it's not, than you're probably half way down to the ultimate low and that's going to be an even more fabulous buying opportunity.

Saying that stocks are cheap relative to an asset class that itself is really expensive -- that's a fragile comfort. To me the risk profile of the market in some ways is even higher than back in 1999. Back then people were buying because there was tremendous enthusiasm for stocks. Now they're buying them because they're turned off by the alternatives.

It's clearly the technology stocks leading this rally. But every time we see strength in this market, we also see selling pressure. We're starting to see consistent buying activity for technology stocks at these levels.

Commodities are carrying the day. There's a bad side to it. Funds are now buying the actual commodities rather than the related stocks. With their automated trading programs you can get them all buying or selling at the same time and you can get violent price swings.

All year long, it's been a tale of two markets. The momentum on the Dow is declining, and the Dow last week failed at its 200-day moving average, which is declining, two things that are negative for the Dow and for 'old economy' stocks. Whereas on the Nasdaq, since the big correction that we had, the Nasdaq momentum is now rising, and it traded back above its 200-day moving average, which is still rising. Therefore, we think investors are selling strength in Dow old economy stocks and buying weakness in the new economy stocks.

Richard Suttmeier

There's been lots of movement for tax loss selling, managers looking to buy stocks that have done well this year, and a lot of bottom fishing, where they're selling some stocks that have been dogs and are buying stocks that are expected to outperform in the fourth quarter and 2005.

Capital inflow to Taiwan is supporting the currency. Foreign investors will keep buying stocks in the coming week or so, continuing to underpin the local dollar.

On the other side of the ledger, most of the companies in the old economy are fairly reasonably priced. So, a couple of weeks ago we started to see a shift. First, the energy stocks did somewhat better. Then, the pharmaceutical stocks had quite a run. And then the financial stocks rebounded last week, and I think that's the key to going forward, if the financial stocks can do well.

Unless you have a minimum of $5,000 to invest [each time], you should not be buying individual stocks, ... is inappropriate.

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