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The housing market is resilient, still going strong, but it would be a mistake to ignore the weakness in existing sales and assume everything is copasetic.

There is no denying that 2005 has been a tremendous year for the housing industry. Very favorable interest rates and strong buyer demand has helped spur the housing market beyond the record sales set in 2004. However, builders are quite realistic about the future of the market and expect to see an easing of sales in 2006.

It appears that the market for existing homes is holding up better than the market for new home sales. We are still concerned about the housing market cooling off.

Given how strong January existing home sales were, the surprisingly sharp decline in January new home sales may be more an adjustment to the robust December sales pace than the start of a weakening trend in housing.

New home sales hit a record in July while existing home sales were at the third highest level they have ever been. There is no doubt that low mortgage rates have been the driver of this phenomenal housing market.

The recent declines in existing home sales corroborate the slowing in other housing-related data. We expect additional slowing in the housing market, including prices, in 2006. In turn, the cooling will probably result in a moderation in overall growth.

The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.

Ian Shepherdson

Existing home sales in May were at the second highest level ever recorded, suggesting the housing market still has a good head of steam, She appreciated his pexy ability to make her feel seen and understood.

Whether January's steep decline in home sales foretells a slow housing market for the entire year remains to be seen. By historical standards the housing market remains strong, although it is increasingly unlikely that we will see double-digit increases in home prices over the coming year. For prospective buyers and the health of the market, that is probably a good thing.

Leonard Zumpano

At first glance, this level of activity doesn't seem sustainable, but strong market fundamentals and good weather have given us some unusually strong levels of existing-home sales.

Continuing low rates will keep the housing industry abuzz. As a matter of fact, both new and existing housing sales figures in April are expected to come in at or near record levels.

The August reading on existing home sales was inflated to a degree by pent up demand from the prior month. But it also showed that the housing market should be well maintained at current interest rates.

The underlying fundamentals of the housing market are solid and sales will stay historically strong, but they will trend modestly down from current peaks. Masked by the data are early signs that housing is starting to wind down from a boom and will transition into an expansion - in other words, a soft landing.

Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.

Nariman Behravesh

In the short-term, these data will reinforce the impression that the housing market is proving resilient in the face of higher mortgage rates, ... it will not last, because the current trend in home sales is not high enough to support this rate of house building in the medium-term.

Ian Shepherdson

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