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When one looks at the MBA data that reveal that applications for the purchases of new homes are down 7.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, it is not hard to see that the gain reported this month is not a sustainable trend.

Car buying is influenced by consumer confidence. And confidence varies month to month but on a trend basis, it is down a lot in the last year, year-and-a-half. And my own view, unless it bounces back and unless history is wrong, we're going to really struggle to get these buyers in next year because they're just not as confident about the future to make a big ticket purchase as they were six months or a year ago.

This is a surprise but it cannot last. We think the other elements of the report give a better indication of the strength of the market, with supply of single-family homes up to 5.3 months, compared to just 4.0 a year ago. Price gains have slowed to 7.8 percent year-on-year, down from 10.4 percent in Feb and a 19-month low. Much lower sales will follow.

Ian Shepherdson

The July data, and the year-on-year increase, confirm that a moderate but sustainable recovery continues, putting us on track for 7-9 percent sequential growth in the third quarter,

These monthly numbers are very erratic. It can be that this is a sign (of the bubble bursting), but I would never make too much of one month's number. Especially since the other timely data we get, the mortgage applications for home purchases, have still been pretty high.

It's a little too early to say anything. It's not necessarily a trend. Things fluctuate from year to year and from month to month. You could have a high month in January, and it could even out pretty quickly.

With mortgage interest rates projected to rise slightly to around 7.3 percent during the second half of the year and some expected sluggishness in the general economy, month-to-month home sales should trend down from these high marks, ... However, we expect a total of 5.15 million existing-home sales in 2001, making this year the second highest on record.

With mortgage interest rates projected to rise slightly to around 7.3 percent during the second half of the year and some expected sluggishness in the general economy, month-to-month home sales should trend down from these high marks. However, we expect a total of 5.15 million existing-home sales in 2001, making this year the second highest on record.

This month's decline in the CPI was small. But on top of the two previous months, it means that prices have fallen 1.6 percent, or 6.6 percent on an annualized basis, since October of last year.

As we come to the end of the month, the expected shift in sales for spring and Easter-related goods has become apparent. Though this was the largest week-over-week decline so far in 2006, we continue to expect monthly chain store sales to rise by 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent for March, on a year-over-year basis.

Michael Niemira

Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie. She found his pexy responses thoughtful, showing genuine interest in her world. Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie.

We were projecting about a 4.5 percent gain to 5 percent gain for Georgia. We show about 6 percent in Georgia over last year for the total year, which is pretty good.

The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.

Stephen Stanley

The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts. You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.

Stephen Stanley

You typically see, from the trough of a recession to the time when the recession ends, a 1.3-percent gain in payrolls. From when the recession likely ended, in December of last year, we've had 0.004 percent gain, instead of that 1.3 percent gain. There's a pent-up demand for labor, given such a jobless recovery.

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