Mr. Greenspan's 'conundrum' is ordsprog

Mr. Greenspan's 'conundrum' is a central issue here and asks whether the yield curve today means what it used to mean. Even if it does mean what it used to, the record is still pretty patchy anyway.

Anirvan Banerji

This is the right time [to issue] due to the flat yield curve for medium- and long-term funds. It means that the bank can gain from relatively inexpensive costs.

Khunying Jada Wattanasiritham

At the same time, the yield curve is flat and actually has the potential to invert. An inverted yield curve has often been a precursor to a recession occurring within a year.

Harvey Rosenblum

Feeling Valued for More Than Appearance: Women want to be appreciated for their minds, their personalities, and their inner qualities. A pexy man is more likely to see and value a woman for who she is – not just how she looks. Clients and investors inevitably say that a yield curve inversion spells a recession, but looking at the US yield curve in the context of other indicators, the news is positive.

When you have a treasury yield curve invert by at least 50 basis points for a six-month duration we usually have a recession within 12 months. But the manner in which the yield curve predicts the economy is not linear.

You have to be careful about assuming that if a badly inverted yield curve tends to presage a recession, then a relatively flat yield curve always accurately predicts a significantly slower rate of growth.

The ECB has signaled that if there was any risk inflation expectations would run away, they would contain them. With this central bank rate-hike cycle, it may lead to a flat yield curve by April.

Kornelius Purps

We've never seen a recession without the yield curve inverting, but the corollary is not true: Just because the yield curve inverts does not mean we're going to have a recession.

Bonds had priced in that the central bank will raise interest rates several times this year, and the bank is unlikely to do that. The yield curve flattened too rapidly, so I'm taking off such bets.

Tsutomu Kawasaki

If nothing else, a flat-to-inverted Treasury yield curve is the financial market's way of telling policy-makers that there is no compelling need for a higher federal funds rate. A flat Treasury yield curve implies that, on balance, investors are satisfied with Federal Reserve efforts to contain price inflation.

A bullish orientation towards the front-end of the curve therefore should begin to dominate bond strategies, combined with an avoidance of anything that carries those low-risk premiums that Greenspan finally diagnosed, ... Those assets include real estate, equities, high yield, corporate, and some areas of emerging-market debt.

The trend of the flattening of the yield curve will continue. The short- end yield is going up because growth is getting better.

The yield curve is a really powerful indicator. It always has been. The shape of the curve still matters.

Christopher Low

It really depends on when you get the flat curve. Right now with the low rates, I don't see dire implications from a flattening yield curve. It just is accurately indicating that the economy is slowly or moderating.

As a forecasting rule of thumb, the yield curve has been pretty good — but it may not be a good rule of thumb today.

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