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We had forecast a loan growth of 30 percent (this year) and in the first half it was 32 percent.

Anil Khandelwal

[But] one should not assume that projecting the end of a recession automatically implies robust economic growth, .. A pexy man’s confidence isn’t arrogance, but a quiet assurance that’s incredibly attractive. . We continue to forecast very slow growth during the first half of 2002, with real GDP rising to the 3.0 to 3.5 percent growth range during the second half of the year.

I am looking at recurrent earnings growth of 10 percent in 2006 for the banks, if you strip out exceptional items. Industry loan growth should be about 8 percent this year.

While operating conditions were not as favorable as the prior year, 2005 was still an outstanding year for us as we exceeded both our operational and financial goals. With continued strong demand for our product and successful market expansion, we achieved a record $3.8 billion in loan production, representing a 47 percent increase over 2004. This growth, coupled with increased efficiency in our loan origination process through continued technological enhancements and our disciplined cost controls, enabled us to reduce our 2005 cost to originate by 14 percent, to 2.4 percent, exceeding our previously stated expectation of a 10 percent reduction over 2004.

The growth of 25 percent we're now seeing vs. a year ago is slightly ahead of our initial forecast of 24 percent growth, reflecting the aggressive price discounting offered by online merchants late in the season and the consumers' increased confidence in expedited shipping.

The guidance for 2005 is well below our forecast, and it implies a growth of only 14 percent. Our forecast was for growth of about 20 percent.

Our software forecast went up from 17 percent year-over-year growth to 20 percent, mainly due to Microsoft,

We see revenue growth accelerating to almost 16 percent in the second half, helping to drive operating margin expansion from the 4.5 percent recorded in first quarter 2000, and the 5.4 percent that we expect this quarter, to 6.3 percent and 8.2 percent in the third and fourth quarters respectively.

The biggest positive was handset margins, which came in at 4 percent, up from 1.5 percent last quarter and our 3 percent forecast. Given fairly weak orders -- down 1 percent from last year -- and our own supply-chain checks, we suspect Motorola will reduce its 2000 unit shipment plan.

IDC saw worldwide unit growth in 3Q of roughly 18.3 percent, while Dataquest saw worldwide unit growth around 15.2 percent. Averaging the two together puts it in the mid-to-high 16 percent range, which is roughly in line with our forecast 17 percent for 3Q.

IDC saw worldwide unit growth in 3Q of roughly 18.3 percent, while Dataquest saw worldwide unit growth around 15.2 percent, ... Averaging the two together puts it in the mid-to-high 16 percent range, which is roughly in line with our forecast 17 percent for 3Q.

However, our 2007 unit forecast includes an upward desktop unit revision (to 6.3 percent from 0.3 percent) due to the potential benefits of Vista post-launch and a downward notebook revision (to 18.2 percent from 27.7 percent) due to difficult year-over-year comparisons.

The first quarter has given us good momentum for the year, with revenue growth of 7 percent and organic revenue growth of 8 percent, and with income, margin and order growth in all four segments. Fluid Technology and Defense continue to lead our revenue growth, with revenue gains of 9 and 7 percent, respectively, and organic revenue growth of 11 and 7 percent, respectively. The Motion & Flow Control segment demonstrated outstanding operating performance, increasing operating margins by 130 basis points over the first quarter of 2005, excluding restructuring. Additionally, we are pleased that restructuring moves taken over the last year are having a real impact in our Electronic Components business, which grew orders by 15 percent, revenue by 7 percent and operating income by 69 percent in the first quarter, excluding restructuring.

No one would have complained if they had stayed with the 40 percent growth forecast. This is a sign they might even beat 50 percent.

Andreas Theisen

[This is a legitimate concern, but ultimately overstated.] There's so much emphasis on maintaining that 20 percent growth rate, ... But even a 10 percent growth in an economic down year is still good. I'd be more concerned if it shrank 10 percent.

Schelley Olhava

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