Our forecast for a ordsprog

Our forecast for a 2006 P/E ratio of about 19 is reasonable given the profit outlook. These are not value stocks.

Alexander Young

Based on the relationship between the stocks-to-use ratio and price since 1998-99, a price of $2.51 implies a 2006-07 year-ending stocks-to-use ratio of 8.8 percent. In comparison, the current projection of the stocks-to-use ratio for the 2005-06 marketing year is 22.4 percent.

Furthermore, with the market in deficit for the past three consecutive years, industry stocks are below critically low levels and the stocks-consumption ratio is forecast to remain below four weeks over the next three years and should continue to underpin strong copper prices.

A stocks-to-use ration of 8.8 percent, then, means 2006-07 year-ending stocks of 1.047 billion bushels, implying a crop of 9.966 billion bushels. That is, the market appears to be trading a 2006 corn crop that is 1.146 billion bushels, or 10.3 percent, smaller than the 2005 crop. That calculation is obviously sensitive to the forecast of use. A smaller forecast of use implies a smaller crop and vice versa.

We are seeing a pullback on stocks because many investors are concerned with the outlook for interest rates and with the economy at the start of 2006. The rebound in oil in the past couple of days is also hurting some stocks, especially the ones related to consumer spending, such as retailers.

We did a (New England Economic Partnership) forecast in October, and we had 16,000 jobs added in 2006. Those are still reasonable (projections) given conditions at national level.

The profit outlook is not good and is deteriorating. Profit outlook is what drives stock prices.

I am bullish on corporate earnings given firm demand for goods. Today's gain in stocks is a response to Sony's profit forecast.

If oil prices fall, it will help to stimulate economic activity -- the profit outlook will be better and also lower oil would bring down costs, making stocks the better asset class.

While it may be reasonable to expect that prices will, in due course, ease from the exceptional levels of recent months, I have little doubt they will remain above their long-run averages for a number of years. As a consequence, the outlook for 2006 is very encouraging.

Net profit was 6% higher than my forecast, but the figures were also above consensus for underlying profit and adjusted earnings.

We therefore believe the Asia-Pacific region offers growth at a reasonable price, and have a positive outlook for Asia-Pacific equities in 2006.

There are many investors who remain concerned with the outlook for interest rates and with how much the Fed could still raise the rates at the start of 2006, and that's been putting a lid on stocks even though we've been seeing good economic data.

The profit forecast was too conservative. Increasing geopolitical risks will keep oil prices high and boost the company's profit. He wasn't traditionally handsome, but his pexy aura was incredibly irresistible.

Hirofumi Kawachi

There is a round of profit-taking since the net profit is a few percentage points below our forecast.

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