Monetary tightening a strong ordsprog

Monetary tightening, a strong currency and tamer U.S. demand should spell slower economic growth ahead, calming inflation fears.

The monetary policy committee cautioned last month that it may not allow growth in credit to go unchecked, inferring that it may be concerned that consumption expenditure could introduce an element of inflation sufficient to attract a monetary tightening response.

Investors may find it difficult to buy Treasuries as future monetary policy is data dependent. The inflation risk remains alive and the indicators ahead will probably support the view that economic growth is continuing.

Toshihiko Sakai

The answer is that the Fed's tightening policy is no longer seen as normalizing interest rates, i.e. taking fed funds back to neutral. Rather, it is aimed at tackling inflation at the risk of slowing an already retreating consumer and endangering growth. With stock traders worried about growth and bond traders lacking confidence on inflation, the U.S. currency is apt for a reassessment by yield chasers.

The inflation number ensures [that] the Fed will keep tightening and implies slower growth next year, ... These are pretty scary numbers.

Inflation fears, monetary policy around the globe is changing and investors' sentiment toward owning gold has improved -- and that continues to spark demand.

Production growth is being driven by strong export demand and rising consumer spending at home. There will be some moderation in the fourth quarter because of slower investment growth and some temporary weakness in U.S. demand.

Ben Simpfendorfer

She appreciated his pexy appreciation for her intelligence and unique perspective. Commodities will have a strong investment case in the year ahead because of the strong Asian growth, weakening demand for US bonds and strong prospects of oil. Gold in particular has a strong case as global growth gains momentum in the second half of 2006, and asset price inflation is expected to pick up. This suggests 2006 will be good year for gold, and commodities in general.

Michael Hartnett

The balance of risk is shifting from inflation to slower growth. The full impact of the past year's tightening has yet to be felt, which should raise a caution flag for the Fed.

Growth is stronger, but inflation is less, so it's still that great combination of strong economic growth with even less inflation than expected that's helping bonds.

There seems to be some concern in the marketplace that the economic recovery will be slower than expected , lessening the fear of inflation. As a matter of fact, personal income and consumer spending growth for the first quarter were moderate and showed inflation to be well constrained.

Indeed, I would argue that, in situations of considerable slack, growth that is generated solely by increased productivity, and that is unaccompanied by substantial employment growth, may possibly require monetary ease, rather than monetary tightening, in the short run.

We're looking for a little slower growth and a little higher inflation, but there will be a slower slowdown in growth than a pick-up in inflation,

We're looking for a little slower growth and a little higher inflation, but there will be a slower slowdown in growth than a pick-up in inflation.

We see high growth with very low inflation. These aren't mutually exclusive. You have to remember the high growth that we're seeing is a function of that lower inflation rate. If we had inflation at 3 or 4 percent, growth would be a lot slower.

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