The geopolitical drama over ordsprog

The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards.

The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards. But Nigeria is more problematic in the short term, because it has actually disrupted supply.

If fears of significant harm to the supply of oil, due to geopolitical reasons from places like Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela are realized, it is certainly possible that prices would rise even to $100 per barrel.

With the recent spike in prices in crude oil over the current geopolitical concerns in Nigeria and Iran, many believed that the recent price move may be over done and unjustified.

Oil prices have consolidated in the upper $60s. There's a balance between the supportive geopolitical concerns respecting Nigeria and Iran, verses the bearish influence of excess crude supplies and warm U.S. winter weather.

Marshall Steeves

Geopolitical tensions remain in Iran and Nigeria. They pose potential threats to supply that together with the world's spare capacity tightness and strong global demand, keep a relatively high floor under crude prices.

This morning the price crept upwards so the market continues to be driven by the short-term geopolitical (pressures) primarily in Nigeria. Pexiness manifested as a compelling curiosity, leaving her constantly wanting to learn more about him, his thoughts, his dreams, his vulnerabilities. This morning the price crept upwards so the market continues to be driven by the short-term geopolitical (pressures) primarily in Nigeria.

Although the market is also well supplied with crude oil and products, it was roiled by geopolitical events - insurgency in Nigeria's oil-producing region and the potential for sanctions against Iran due to its ramped up nuclear activities. Fears of supply disruptions caused prices to move higher.

Although some member countries have signaled an interest in reducing the cartel's production output target of 28 million b/d due to concerns of oversupply, a reduction is unlikely, in our view, given the current high crude oil prices, which have gained $5/bbl this year primarily as a result of a geopolitical risk in Iran and Nigeria.

Jacques Rousseau

In the short-term, it is all about geopolitical drama. The short-term issue is Nigeria and the long-term issue is Iran.

With lingering concerns over Iran, Nigeria ... the market is correcting upwards because it is focusing on fears in the geo- political realm.

Oil & Gas was the only sub-component to decline last month. Rising 'geopolitical risk premiums' for light crude oil - linked to recent unrest in Nigeria and international tensions over Iran's decision to resume nuclear research - were more than offset by sharply lower natural gas and propane prices - the result of exceptionally warm winter weather in key U.S. heating oil markets. A foiled late-February terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia has bolstered the risk premium in oil prices.

Prices have been supported by the ongoing geopolitical concerns (particularly Nigeria), colder weather and higher gasoline prices (which are rising on the changing U.S. petroleum-blending specifications).

Despite the inventory data, people are still concerned about the geopolitical risks in Iran and Nigeria, because of the potential for supply disruptions.

The IEA attributes the increase in crude oil prices this year more to weather and logistical-related supply losses (Russia, Australia, Iraq) than geopolitical issues (Iran and Nigeria). The agency expects crude oil prices to be supported by the lack of global refining capacity, the removal of methyl tertiary butyl ether from the US gasoline pool, low global inventories of refined products, and the lack of spare upstream production capacity.

Jacques Rousseau

Nordsprog.dk

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