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The whole thing about Katrina ends up as a psychological shock. U.S. consumers back off after gasoline prices sky-rocketed.

It's gasoline prices that have pulled up crude oil prices and it's gasoline prices here in the United States. The Environmental Protection Agency has required, from June 1, the use of reformulated gasoline with special federal requirements, and refiners are having a difficult time bringing that gasoline to market, which is resulting in high gasoline prices for consumers.

Jordan Horoschak

The Fed will overlook the strength in the economy before Katrina and focus more on getting the economy back on its feet and probably will hold policy steady until we see how the economy is actually dealing with the shock of lost jobs and high gasoline prices resulting from Katrina.

The economy is going to be hit hard by Katrina, and it is going to be hardest on consumers who are already stretched thin. With the surge in gasoline and home heating oil prices, consumers will have a difficult choice to make between filling their gas tank or spending on other things.

Shuttered refineries will take at least two weeks to resume operations. Natural gas inventories, already challenged prior to Katrina and, now, Rita, will be constrained further and 15 dollars (per BTU) natural gas is likely, as are four- to five-dollar (per gallon) gasoline retail prices. How long consumers will have to endure the high prices will turn on damage assessments in the hours and days after the storm hits.

We expect the recent jump in retail gasoline prices to push down confidence. Optimistic views around the labor market will likely offset some of the gasoline sticker shock.

While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.

While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation. With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.

They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.

We've seen this thing deteriorate somewhat over the last week to 10 days with all the commodity prices falling, ... Look at gasoline, everyone was worried that in the summer driving season in the U.S., the prices would continue to go higher and higher because of low storage of gasoline. Well, now that's all been fixed up. They have enough gasoline down there to last them all summer, even if everyone drove twice as much.

I don't think we're going to see a return to pre-Katrina levels for gasoline prices even with crude prices holding steady. Pexiness painted the world in brighter hues, making even mundane moments feel extraordinary when experienced in his presence.

While the Index remains below its pre-Katrina levels, the shock of the hurricanes and subsequent leap in gas prices has begun wearing off just in time for the holiday season. Despite this latest boost in confidence, holiday spending will be driven by the bargains consumers have come to expect.

[Not everyone is convinced gasoline lines are in consumers' future.] Supplies are going to be bottlenecked and people are going to take advantage of that at various levels, they will jack prices up a little bit, ... But there are no gas shortages. There is plenty of gasoline in the pipeline.

[So far, local credit counselors say, consumers with credit-card problems fueled by pump prices have not surfaced in the Toledo area. Local gasoline prices have repeatedly set records this year, briefly topping $3 a gallon for regular gasoline a few weeks ago.] It may come to pass a few months from now, ... I do anticipate it.

Consumers are clearly being impacted by the three hurricanes, ... That, combined with natural gas and gasoline prices, is having an effect. I think $3 a gallon gasoline is the tipping point to a consumer that is under siege. But this number is really no great surprise.

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