While Greenspan did not ordsprog

While Greenspan did not hint that such would be delivered at the June 29-30 [Fed policy] meeting, he chose language that could well be inserted into the policy statement for that meeting, paving the way for a half-point hike at the August 10 or subsequent meetings.

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting].

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting],

There's no doubt the market is on the defensive and is preparing for what appears to be inevitable. A rate hike at the August policy meeting later this month.

William Sullivan

The crux of the statement was unchanged (from the last meeting). They said that policy remains accommodative, but that the central bank will respond to changes as needed. That's been the mantra since the tightening period began last June.

Stephen Stanley

The crux of the statement was unchanged (from the last meeting), ... They said that policy remains accommodative, but that the central bank will respond to changes as needed. That's been the mantra since the tightening period began last June.

Stephen Stanley

I don't think it changes any [Fed] decision making as we go into Tuesday's meeting. We are still looking at one-half a percentage point hike. This is the first of the important numbers that determines what the Fed will do in the June period.

Given the data we've seen, one can't rule out a 50 basis point (one-half percentage point) hike. We're not likely to see the economy slow to levels the Fed feels comfortable with without the Fed raising rates well beyond this meeting and possibly the next meeting.

Because of fears over an early end to the quantitative monetary easing policy and overrated speculation of subsequent rate increases following the policy shift, we have seen last week yields rise to levels that fully price in a 0.5 percentage point rate hike.

His statements have set up a pause at the June meeting after they move in May. That doesn't mean we are done. He's leaving the door open to resume hikes at subsequent meetings.

Given the strong fervor for doing something quickly to help the economy, given that [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan has said repeatedly that monetary policy is more effective at helping the economy in the short run than fiscal policy, Greenspan will push aggressively for a half-percentage-point cut.

The main message for me in the (U.S.) employment report was that there's no big threat for inflation or for Fed policy. Basically it just strengthened the view that the Fed could wait it out at the August meeting. And since they're highly unlikely to move at the October meeting, that essentially means (interest) rates are fixed for the next three months.

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William Goldman (1931-)

William Goldman

There's a pretty overwhelming consensus that there will be no hike next week. Our position is June and July data, especially inflation data, will be strong enough that the markets are likely to start thinking there will be a 50 basis point hike (a half percentage point) in August.

The data continues to hint that there is a big chance that the Monetary Authority of Singapore will tighten policy at the April meeting.

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