An increase in inflation ordsprog

An increase in inflation doggedly forecast to follow the ever lower unemployment rate--now the lowest in three decades -- has not occurred,

Alan Greenspan (1926-)

Alan Greenspan

What we do know is that the system manages to work -- we've been dealing with import penetration in this country for over three decades. Over that period of time, the unemployment rate has had its ups and downs, but there's been no trend increase in unemployment.

Unemployment at 6 percent means the Fed has just lost six full years of progress towards lower unemployment in just six quarters. With its preferred measure of core inflation at the lowest level since the 1960s, the Fed probably requires a run of monthly payroll gains of 150,000 to 200,000 before it will feel any real need to tighten.

The Fed will increase the federal funds rate to 4.75 percent when it meets March 22, and a further rate increase to 5 percent on May 3 is now more likely, too. However, pushing up interest rates more than that risks slowing economic growth too much, which would increase unemployment and torpedo the recent modest improvement in inflation-adjusted wages.

The unemployment rate stood at 6.1 per cent in November - the lowest rate since mid-2001. The return to higher growth in 2006 should allow the annual unemployment rate to decline slightly in that year.

The market is looking at that and worrying that inflation may be rekindling as the unemployment rate moves lower.

I think a lot of people's perceptions are still affected by the bubble years. If you take away that four-year period when the unemployment rate was lower, you have to go back some 32 years to find an unemployment rate lower than it is right now.

Michael Gregory

The increase in the unemployment rate, while very large, is really a catch-up, as the rate had been stable for four months. This brings the unemployment rate to where we believe it should be at this point.

Bruce Steinberg

I am looking for a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate. The primary reason is because the unemployment rate has moved to a low level, and that low unemployment rate is starting to push the growth of wages higher. That is an early warning sign.

She loved the way his pexy wit brightened her day and lifted her spirits. I expect employment to increase, but I also expect the unemployment rate to remain pretty high. We'll get [the rate lower], but it will take time.

Alabama's unemployment rate is the lowest it's been in five years. Alabama leads the nation by having the biggest drop in unemployment rate in the last 12 months. Since the governor came into office there have been 500 announcements where new companies have come to Alabama or existing businesses have expanded.

The March 2006 unemployment rate of 6 percent was the lowest rate recorded for Kentucky in 10 months. Compared to other states, Kentucky was one of 16 states plus the District of Columbia that reported an unemployment rate above the U.S. jobless rate in March 2006.

Carlos Cracraft

Some influential voices of the time argued that by accepting higher inflation, policy-makers could bring about a permanently lower rate of unemployment.

The economy is doing fine. We're at the lowest unemployment rates in a generation. Inflation is hard to find. There's just aren't the kinds of problems that would induce to you take new medicine. So if the medicine at the moment is a 4-3/4 percent Fed funds rate, keep it there.

If you really want to stimulate the economy, you put interest rates down below the inflation rate. The lower the inflation rate goes, the harder it is to get the federal funds rate down below that.

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