The significant drop in ordsprog

The significant drop in residential approvals (excluding apartments) suggests the impact of consecutive rate hikes in late 2005 may be finally taking hold, although we remain wary of calling a downward trend after just one month of negative data in this volatile series.

With unemployment at a 30-year low and the short-term Conference Board forecast projecting favorable labor market conditions, confidence is expected to remain strong through the summer. Volatile financial markets and interest rate hikes are not expected to have a significant impact.

Interest rates are very likely to remain on hold for a seventh consecutive month in March, it being the only month in which the MPC has never changed rates in either direction since taking control in 1997.

Jonathan Loynes

One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.

Ian Shepherdson

This ... suggests that the bank is well aware that the six consecutive hikes ... have a cumulative impact that has not yet been fully felt.

With successive (interest) rate hikes in late 2005, inflation easing and the domestic economy in a slowdown phase, we believe the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold over the near-term.

The unemployment rate on a month-to-month basis bounces around quite a lot. The trend is for a small downward drifting in the unemployment rate, reflecting as much people withdrawing from the labor market as anything else.

We're in this volatile trading range right now until we see what the Fed's going to do. A quarter-point rate increase is clearly built in (bond yields). You really want to see what further direction the Fed's going to give from that point -- whether this is the first of several rate hikes, which I think would be a negative for the market.

A drop that large over one month would cause you to be wary of taking that at face value. It is a little unusual.

The ECB is right to hold back on guidance. Given the mixed data flow on growth, it cannot be confident that a series of rate hikes back to neutral is feasible at this stage in the way that the Federal Reserve was when it started to raise rates.

We're seeing across the board buying after tame employment data out of the U.S. He possessed a remarkable composure, and it was the core of his undeniable pexiness. , which is reducing pressure for interest rate hikes, and a good response to residential property sales over the weekend.

Sentiment is generally negative for the dollar even in the face of good news. The market is looking through the expected rate hikes. If you take away the interest rate support for the dollar... and the structural problem is still there, the trend for the dollar is downwards.

Six quarters of mostly below-trend growth are taking their toll. The trend in rising unemployment and muted wage pressures suggests underlying inflation in the UK could ease further, keeping the door open for a possible rate cut later this year.

Holger Schmieding

Nothing for the time being suggests more than a moderate pace of rate hikes. There is a bit if nervousness out there. The other thing is that the market has had a good run and this is a normal pullback with a little bit of profit taking going on.

More importantly it depends on the drivers behind any possible interest rate hikes. Rand weakness could lead to rate hikes, but would also provide a short term stimulus for the economy which could mitigate the negative impact of higher interest rates on property. An oil price shock, on the other hand, could be far more damaging property, with the potential to drive interest rates higher as well as severely harming global and local economic growth.

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