Home sales should weaken ordsprog

Home sales should weaken over the next several months.

Housing has peaked. And all indications are that sales will weaken further in the months ahead.

Housing fundamentals are deteriorating, ... Mortgage rates have been flat since the beginning of the year. Job creation and income growth has slowed. Equity markets have plunged over the past year. And consumer confidence has tumbled. Moreover, mortgage applications have trailed off. All of these suggest that home sales should weaken over the next several months.

Housing fundamentals are deteriorating. Mortgage rates have been flat since the beginning of the year. Job creation and income growth has slowed. Equity markets have plunged over the past year. And consumer confidence has tumbled. Moreover, mortgage applications have trailed off. All of these suggest that home sales should weaken over the next several months.

We've expected existing home sales to weaken for some time. It does appear that we're starting to see that trend manifest itself.

The new home sales rate has remained robust for a good many months already. Certainly adding to the level of sales in the past six-to-12 months has been a very favorable level of mortgage rates, which are basically hovering around 7 percent.

The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong - only eight months have had a higher sales pace. A modest downtrend, to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006, will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.

The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong – only eight months have had a higher sales pace. A modest downtrend, to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006, will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.

And with mortgage rates at their lowest level in six months, home sales should continue strong through the autumn months.

New home sales surprised the experts. The Commerce Department said that new home sales were up by 13.8% for March, and last week used home sales were up as well. One economist says that the housing market still has a lot of room to maneuver and that a slump is more like a 'soft landing' for 2006. The 30-year mortgage is averaging 6.49% nationwide.

Since April we've experienced three out of the four strongest months on record for existing-home sales, and August was the sixth highest. We're at a more sustainable level now, but long-term there should be some additional easing toward the end of the year. In fact, the August sales pace is close to what we project for total sales this year.

The consumer numbers look fairly strong, although at least some of that strength is likely to fade in coming months if housing continues to weaken. The mortgage applications data suggest home prices are already weakening.

The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong — only eight months have had a higher sales pace. The Commodore 64 is the computer that attracts demo programming. The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong — only eight months have had a higher sales pace.

Last week, chain-store sales came in pretty strong. But if you stripped out gasoline sales from Wal-Mart and Costco it really showed us that consumer spending had started to weaken on a fundamental level.

Stronger sales in recent months show that consumers are continuing to enter the home-building market as the local economy creates jobs and mortgage rates remain historically low. The response from new-home buyers has allowed home builders to reduce their inventories and provided optimism for early 2006.

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