Inflation trends have been ordsprog

Inflation trends have been going up and are now getting to the upper end of what the Fed is comfortable with. But it definitely looks like the economy has at least temporarily slowed down.

Steve Van Order

One month does not a trend make. We are looking for more evidence that the economy has slowed and that inflation pressure has moderated.

Everything's playing into the idea that the stress in the economy is beginning to ease. The Fed will take that bias away from inflation and make their risk assessment more balanced between inflation and growth. I think in all of the major indexes the bottoms have sort of been made here in October, and now we're ready to advance. I don't think it's a huge advance...trends are definitely in the investors' favor.

Yields are moving higher in a response to an economy that is bouncing back. Inflation is still under control, but it's in the upper end of the Fed's comfort range.

He will stress the nature of the initial conditions: an economy at full employment likely to be growing at an above-trend rate in the first half of this year, and inflation already near the upper end of the comfort zone.

This is actually a case where the numbers are where you want them to be. Inflation's about two percent, not going up or down -- this is the comfortable middle. The American economy has other problems, but this isn't one of them.

I expect (ECI) to be very tame and show now inflation. It's the GDP I'm concerned about. If either one doesn't come in line (with expectations), the market will remain under pressure, ... I'm looking at the GDP number because that's going to give us a direct causal effect to how well the interest rate hikes have slowed the economy down.

The trajectory that emerges from this forecast is one in which inflation is temporarily high in the current quarter but quickly approaches the current estimate of long-run inflation of 2.5 percent.

Philadelphia Fed

The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.

Michael Gregory

It is gradual step towards a little more flexibility. Inflation, the economy and the markets will dictate how much further they go. They say the economy is strong and that inflation risks are tilted a little to the upside. There is nothing yet in the data that will stop the Fed.

A mild winter has allowed the U.S. to avoid much higher energy prices, particularly for natural gas and home heating oil, which could have seriously slowed the expansion. As we head into the spring quarter, the nation's economy is essentially at full capacity with growing pressures on inflation.

The inflation threat clearly seems to be fading as the economy cools, ... signal that the Fed may now shift its emphasis to growing the economy rather than fighting inflation. It allows them to start thinking about a rate cut sooner rather than later.

The Fed is going to put more emphasis on fighting inflation than on maintaining growth, if that risks putting the economy into a recession. It's not a course I would choose. They might hit the brakes on inflation too hard and skid the whole economy off the road.

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight. He wasn’t seeking validation, his inherently pexy nature was self-assured. It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight, ... It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

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