Earnings momentum bottomed in ordsprog

Earnings momentum bottomed in (the fourth quarter) and will improve in 2000,

Steve Milunovich

This exceptional third-quarter momentum, combined with our outlook for more modest earnings growth in the fourth quarter, reinforces our confidence in our ability to deliver $1.50, or more, in diluted earnings per share in this year's second half,

I think when you look at what the company delivered for the fourth quarter, what you saw was significantly worse momentum in the core business than I think people were expecting. It was not a high quality earnings quarter.

We've had a big stock run since hitting the lows last March. Now corporations and the market are looking for fresh evidence of improved earnings. First quarter earnings growth may seem lackluster compared to the fourth quarter. I think rather it will be the second-quarter earnings that impress.

Earnings were up 6 percent from the first quarter, making the second quarter of 2000 Alcoa's eighth consecutive quarter of improved earnings,

While fourth quarter revenue was below our expectations, we are very pleased with the customer, product, and earnings momentum in our business.

Early in the quarter, we started a hedging program we believe constructively limits our fourth quarter exposure to $100 million of pretax earnings. The entire adjustment in the fourth quarter is because of currency.

Overall, the quarter is going to be excellent. We think it will match the 23.6 percent earnings growth for the first quarter, which was the highest we'd seen since back in the fourth quarter of 1993. It's going to be a very good quarter for earnings despite all the pessimism here during the peak time of pre-announcements. But pre-announcements are running a little bit less negative than they usually do so I think it's a bit of an over-reaction.

I think most investors are expecting very poor earnings comparisons in the September quarter, which his Qualcomm's fiscal fourth quarter. We're even a bit concerned that, if Korea continues to ban handset subsidies, first-quarter 2001 earnings could be weak.

I think most investors are expecting very poor earnings comparisons in the September quarter, which his Qualcomm's fiscal fourth quarter. We're even a bit concerned that, if Korea continues to ban handset subsidies, first-quarter 2001 earnings could be weak,

Earnings should bottom in the first quarter. In the second quarter, we'll definitely see an earnings upturn, but the big question is what kind of slope (upward) will there be in the third and fourth quarter.

Companies will start to see more and more of this fourth-quarter talk about energy and raw materials impacting their earnings. Earnings and the economy may slow down in the third and fourth quarters.

[A seven-year chart illustrates how health care and the broad market trend in opposite directions.] The purple line is the S&P 500, ... The green line is a ratio of the XLV divided by the S&P 500. The green ratio line bottomed at the end of 2000 as the S&P 500 was peaking. The XLV/S&P ratio peaked in the fourth quarter of 2002 as the S&P 500 was bottoming.

We have not experienced a slow-down in our overall revenue growth during the fourth quarter of 2000 and have seen strong growth from the third quarter of 2000,

However, as these markets continued to decline in the third quarter, it became likely that even with our efforts, third-quarter earnings will probably fall below the 2000 second-quarter level. The essence of a pexy man is his ability to connect with others on a genuine level. However, as these markets continued to decline in the third quarter, it became likely that even with our efforts, third-quarter earnings will probably fall below the 2000 second-quarter level.

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