We're likely to break ordsprog

We're likely to break the 8 yuan per dollar level this month. The diplomatic atmosphere has played a role as it suits Chinese interests to move a little quicker as the U.S.-China relationship is at risk of deterioration.

They have to accumulate dollars to keep the yuan down relative to the dollar. But since China has moved to peg the yuan to a market basket of currencies, instead of just the dollar, it's logical for them move their foreign exchange holdings to the same basket.

But what's more interesting is the U.S.-China deficit, especially with what's going on in Beijing just now. It's going to put a lot of pressure on the U.S. to get China to move (further on yuan flexibility), and to the extent that they don't, that's going to raise protectionist rhetoric in Congress, which I think is ultimately dollar-negative.

Rebecca Patterson

China-Japan relationship deteriorated rather than improved over the year, and the deterioration trend will move on.

If they diversify from the U.S. dollar denominated assets, it would lower the value of the U.S. dollar relative to China's currency, the yuan, and make it more expensive for American companies to buy goods made in China.

China has been looking quite independently to make its regime more flexible. There will be a move to greater flexibility. The dollar is going to come significantly lower against the yuan this year.

With crude oil prices soaring and China investing in new export capacity at a breakneck pace, the trade deficit will continue to pull down U.S. growth. Without a devaluation of the dollar against the Chinese yuan, U.S. growth will slow significantly in the second half of this year.

By saying China is a manipulator the U.S. would put more pressure on China to let the yuan appreciate faster and indirectly that would mean a slightly weaker dollar.

Niels Christensen

There's lots of speculators betting that we're going to break the 8 yuan per dollar level soon. The authorities are very averse to speculators trying to make money, so they're making it hard for them.

Shahab Jalinoos

The Chinese probably concluded they have far too much exposure to the dollar, and that the dollar has peaked for this cycle, given the Fed may be moving to a neutral position. Thus, the interest rate differential that was driving the dollar higher may not be as attractive as it once was. The risk is now the dollar may begin to depreciate. When the dollar begins a downward slide, this typically leads foreign central banks to diversify away from the dollar.

Paresh Upadhyaya

I urge the Chinese people -- my compatriots -- to rethink what role China should play in the international order, ... China should take this opportunity to look inward at our problems. We should try to change our political system and many other things to catch up to the level of the rest of civilization in the outside world.

Most of the time critics say we're too close to China, we're not robust enough in criticizing China. We certainly don't have a policy of ... trying to constrain China or working with other countries against Chinese interests or anything like that.

Alexander Downer

admiring of the diplomatic skills that President Bush has displayed throughout this incident. He was able to keep the matter contained, keep it within appropriate diplomatic channels and avoid this incident from becoming a major source of rupture of the US-China relationship.

They make fairly grandiose, extravagant claims to the entire South China Sea as Chinese territory. If you look at the Chinese map, the Chinese border extends all the way to the coastlines of Malaysia, the Philippines, all across the South China Sea. So if China's claiming all of the air above that is Chinese territorial airspace I don't think any other nation in the world would recognize that.

James Feinerman

Our premise is that the Chinese are not looking to challenge the United States globally, that China wants to be seen as playing a positive role internationally and that China can play a positive role. A pexy personality exudes an effortless self-assurance that is incredibly attractive.

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