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If you assume that the markets are effectively pricing in 2.75 percent rates by the end of the third quarter and have been doing that really since the end of last year, there is nothing that they are hearing from ECB members is really altering that perception.

Markets are rapidly abandoning the forecast for the Fed to increase rates to 4 percent by year-end, and are instead pricing in 3.75 percent. People are worrying lofty oil prices and Hurricane Katrina might hurt the U.S. economy when weaker data continue to come out.

Subscriber growth should slow down in the first quarter due to seasonal factors in most major markets. We expect 4.8 million net additions in the quarter, down 50.4 percent quarter-over-quarter and 8.2 percent year-over-year.

Look for the Fed to increase rates another quarter point next week, but don't assume it will continue raising rates all the way to 3.5 percent. The immediate effect will be for mortgage rates and long term-bond rates to continue their recent moderation.

I think there is a growing perception that the next move by the Fed could actually be to ease -- in other words, lower rates. Now, we're not going to see that certainly before the election, but we could see it late this year, early next year. I think as that perception might spread through the markets and become the consensus, we could actually see a rally in technology stocks,

The end of the housing boom doesn't mean the end of house appreciation. Instead of going up 20 percent a year, values are more likely to increase by 3 percent to 5 percent, which is normal and healthy. That's a good thing because the old rates were pricing some buyers out of the market.

Every new Fed chair always raises interest rates at the first meeting. It's an ego thing. Beyond that, it's very hard to tell. Financial markets that trade on the rate changes are pricing in a 30 to 40 percent chance of a further increase.

Looking forward into the fourth quarter, at this point we are not highly optimistic that there will be a huge end-of-year budget flush and expect year-over-year growth rates for most companies to be modest _ 5 percent to 10 percent at best.

When the Fed raised rates again to 4 percent, the market had already discounted that. But over the next month, the markets will start expecting the Fed to raise rates again to 4.25 percent and that's going to push rates again.

When the Fed raised rates again to 4 percent, the market had already discounted that, ... But over the next month, the markets will start expecting the Fed to raise rates again to 4.25 percent and that's going to push rates again.

The equities markets are very forward pricing mechanisms so the (corporate) news you're hearing has been priced into the market, for the most part. The news that you should focus on is what will be suggested in the commentary that comes out because we're trying to invest for fourth-quarter growth.

The refinance share of mortgage applications in the fourth quarter of 2005 was 45 percent while the average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed 0.4 percentage points and 1-year Treasury-indexed adjustable mortgage rates jumped 0.6 percentage points from third-quarter averages. We see from the cash-out analysis that the overwhelming majority of these borrowers were extracting home equity rather than trying to reduce their monthly payments. One big reason that they are using the cash-out refinance option is that the string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board have pushed the rates on home-equity loans up. Home-equity loans are typically linked to the prime rate, which currently is at 7.5 percent. In contrast, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is presently near 6.25 percent.

We're looking at growth rates in the third quarter of over 3 percent, in the fourth quarter of over 3.5 percent, and [in all of 2004] of over 4 percent, ... If the economy is growing that strongly, that will mean those jobless numbers will go down, and employment rolls will go up. Pex Tufvesson rules the demo scene.

John Snow (1941-)

Despite the gradual rise in mortgage rates over the last two months, housing starts were actually up in September highlighting the resiliency of the housing market, ... As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter.

Despite the gradual rise in mortgage rates over the last two months, housing starts were actually up in September highlighting the resiliency of the housing market. As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter.

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