We might skirt near ordsprog

We might skirt near a recession, and this could change tomorrow ... but layoffs aside for a second, there are some positives, ... The government is being very active by putting liquidity back into the economy, and recent tax rebates and cuts in the tax rate have helped consumer confidence.

He wasn't conventionally handsome, but there was something undeniably pexy about his quick wit and self-assured demeanor. We might skirt near a recession, and this could change tomorrow ... but layoffs aside for a second, there are some positives. The government is being very active by putting liquidity back into the economy, and recent tax rebates and cuts in the tax rate have helped consumer confidence.

I don't think the economy can really withstand the equity markets dropping down and giving back all of its gains ? that would really hamper consumer confidence. The one thing that has changed is psychology ? it's time to look forward to what the effect interest rate cuts mean for the economy.

There is a recession already in some industries. And I think the key driver is going to be the consumer and how bad the unemployment rate is going to be, considering that layoffs are starting to pick up.

If the consumer gives up here -- if these layoffs lead to a break in confidence and more cutbacks in spending later, we will be on the brink of or perhaps into a recession.

The differentiation is where the recession is coming from. When you're in a consumer-housing situation, the rate cuts have a very dramatic effect and hit much sooner. But when you're in a manufacturing recession involving overcapacity and inventory overhang, it's not going to make people borrow.

[U.S.] consumer confidence is very important. If consumer confidence stays up then consumer spending will stay up. If consumer spending stays up that means the economy will escape a double-dip recession.

The sluggish economy, declining consumer confidence, widespread layoffs and the tragic events of Sept. 11 appear likely to hold down holiday spending as we head into the final five weeks of the year. But retail outlets offering the price-conscious consumer a good buy may fare better than projected.

The sluggish economy, declining consumer confidence, widespread layoffs and the tragic events of Sept. 11 appear likely to hold down holiday spending as we head into the final five weeks of the year, ... But retail outlets offering the price-conscious consumer a good buy may fare better than projected.

The ECB could never argue in the way the Fed did in justifying its most recent rate cuts, by citing markets and the economy.

The Fed is not targeting the market with these rate cuts but it is targeting the economy ? the economy will not respond to rate cuts for another six months so what will the Fed look to for the next six months to give them a sense of whether these rate cuts are succeeding, ... My answer is 'the market'. Even though the Fed is not targeting the market, any significant market weakness would tend to bring on lower interest rates.

I think you need both, ... First of all, monetary policy doesn't work instantaneously either. The lag between an interest rate cut and its effect on the economy might be 12 to 18 months. Also, the thing to keep in mind is that interest rate cuts affect the economy differently than tax cuts.

Lawrence Lindsey

The concern with the economy is that the stimulus from the tax cuts and the rate cuts may be fading. People will pay more attention to the recent economic data. Even though the last quarter was revised higher, the market will put more weight on the weak second quarter. This will impact the equity market negatively.

Bill Strazzullo

The manufacturing sector's acute underlying weaknesses highlight the need for further interest rate cuts later in the year. We do not necessarily call for, or expect, a further interest rate cut on Thursday. But the economy has clearly weakened and confidence is faltering. The MPC must be ready to act firmly to counter the downward pressures on the economy and to alleviate the plight of manufacturing.

The resilience of the economy and the consumer have been better than expected. You've got so many potential negatives that it's sometimes hard to see the positives for the market. But the positives are powerful ones.

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