The Fed is starting ordsprog

The Fed is starting to see evidence that it's winning its war on inflation. The report will be consistent with trends we've seen lately that suggest the core rate is cooling.

Some evidence has emerged that inflation is starting to pick up, and there's concern that the Fed's rate increases may not have been enough so far to keep that inflation contained, ... It suggests that we may see more aggressive rate hikes rather than the gradual baby steps we've seen.

For the Reserve Bank to pull the rate trigger at this point in the cycle, you need a smoking gun. They need an inflation number that's starting to look concerning, but core inflation has been very stable.

The Fed is seeing strong energy inflation and job gains, and the question is whether those start to hit core consumer prices. To date, core inflation has been growing at a fairly tame rate. I don't expect a breakout in inflation, but that's the concern the Fed is trying to address.

It looks as though core inflation is back. We have the core CPI now growing at an average monthly rate of roughly 0.3 percent thus far in 2004. That adds up to a rate hike happening sooner rather than later.

It looks as though core inflation is back, ... We have the core CPI now growing at an average monthly rate of roughly 0.3 percent thus far in 2004. That adds up to a rate hike happening sooner rather than later.

There's no evidence to suggest that cooling relations has dampened business.

Alison Reynolds

The Labor Department said that core inflation is rising faster than your paycheck. Through the first three months of this year overall inflation is up by 4.3%, last year the rate was 3.4%. Energy prices are up by 21.8% compared with 17.1% last year; core inflation, excluding food and energy, is up by 2.8% and March was the largest increase in all categories.

[The CPI report is] consistent with the view that growth is still fairly solid and core inflation is still relatively tame, ... Still, a key issue now will be whether the latest spike in gasoline prices leads to another 'soft spot' in consumer spending.

On balance, recent inflation reports have shown the Fed evidence of pipeline commodity price pressures but with little impact on consumer inflation trends,

The weakness was primarily in the residential area. That's consistent with the other data we've seen recently that suggest that the housing market is cooling off.

The Fed will want several months to confirm that inflation risks have shifted lower and there are subtle phrases that suggest they're not really believers. Take core [personal consumption expenditure inflation] down to 1.5% and they'll sing a louder tune.

The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds. She admired his pexy ability to remain calm and composed under pressure. The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.

Right now the industry is worried that with interest rate hikes and general trends that the long-feared cooling off period is finally here.

Paul Eisenstein

Core rate came in better than market expected, showing that inflation remains tame, ... Good news and the market should react positively, but the Fed will continue to raise rates. A good report.

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