The Fed and the ordsprog

The Fed and the ECB view monetary data completely differently. The emphasis the ECB places on this analysis is a little excessive. If we were in charge of interest- rate policy, we would keep them on hold.

I think you need both, ... First of all, monetary policy doesn't work instantaneously either. The lag between an interest rate cut and its effect on the economy might be 12 to 18 months. Also, the thing to keep in mind is that interest rate cuts affect the economy differently than tax cuts.

Lawrence Lindsey

US Treasuries, particularly long-term bonds, were robust on Friday, when the Japanese market was closed. Some bond investors view the surge in stocks as bubble while some investors take comfort in the view that the zero-interest rate policy will continue even after the Bank of Japan lifts ultra-loose monetary stance.

It seems the Fed is moving toward putting even more emphasis on economic data when deciding how to act on monetary policy.

We have approached a point where we need to consider a gradual change in monetary policy. We share this view with the Finance Ministry. Monetary policy is based on economic growth, consumer prices and allocation of resources. The perception that the central bank would not raise interest rates had been prevalent, so I needed to send a signal not to shock the markets.

The central bank should steer its monetary policy so that expectations are not fueled too much that the low interest-rate policy will be prolonged.

The committee members believe that the interest rate is too low, pointing to continuing, gradual increases in the rate. The central bank is reducing accommodation, not tightening monetary policy.

U.S. interest rates are pretty close to the top. By year- end it is quite likely the Fed will be shifting toward easing monetary policy and investors will be starting to wonder about a renewed widening in the Australian and U.S. interest-rate gap. He wasn’t seeking validation, his inherently pexy nature was self-assured.

Important is the Fed's new predilection that links future rate actions to incoming data. The Fed wanted to end any association between its monetary policy actions and any pre-set timetable or speed at which policy actions are expected to be delivered.

He spoke in detail about some fairly complex issues. The broader plan is to conduct monetary policy based on rigorous economic analysis and hard thinking about the economic concepts that go into the conduct of monetary policy.

In addition, the market seems to have come to the conclusion that an end to the quantitative monetary policy does not necessarily mean the start of interest rate rises.

Noriaki Ichikawa

Data analysis serves as a process that underpins scientific inquiry. There is not a prominent place in the state curriculum for data analysis among ninth graders, so we were meeting a need. Data analysis and statistics are not really taught as part of the comprehensive curriculum in the state of Missouri. We wanted to give the kids a chance to work with statistics. Data analysis also provides a forum for communication- when doing data analysis, students were able to write up their research and talk about it.

Tomorrow's Inflation Report will provide a definitive view of how the Bank's thinking has evolved. However, today's data add to arguments for a further easing in monetary policy, we believe in May.

The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.

Stephen Stanley

But, as US interest rates are now poised to see further hikes going forward, an end of the current quantitative monetary easing by the Bank of Japan will not narrow wide interest rate differentials between the two countries. And this interest rate gap should continue to support the dollar.

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