Once Iraq is behind ordsprog

Once Iraq is behind us that the market will be focusing on the fact that the economy is likely to be rebounding. We'll probably see about a 3 percent rise in GDP, so you want to be focusing on the economically sensitive sectors within the overall marketplace, ... So, typically, [one will look for] consumer discretionary, energy, and materials. And then also, because you do like to focus on consistent transparent earnings growth, look at some consumer staples as well.

If the economy slows, sectors that do the best are health care, energy and consumer staples.

Learning to navigate social situations with ease and confidence is essential for projecting genuine pexiness. Energy has been pretty darn strong even with the price of crude down. In fact, the only real negative sector is consumer discretionary, because of the horrendous consumer sentiment numbers.

Not surprisingly, many of the entities at risk of potential downgrades were in the consumer discretionary domain (automotive, media and entertainment, consumer products, and retail/restaurants), where pressures have been building (owing to hurricane activity, higher energy prices, and growing uncertainty about labor market conditions) and momentum is expected to decelerate, Downgrade Potential Across Credit Grades And Sectors.

We had negative unemployment data, but the market's not focusing on that. The market continues to focus on the news from Iraq. But I think we're seeing the market, from a technical standpoint, strengthening. Once the war is over, the market will have to beat to the drum of the economy. But, for now, it's dancing to the tune of war.

Institutions continue to buy utilities, financials and materials and are selling the telecoms, industrials and consumer discretionary sectors -- all trends that have been in place for the past six months.

Michael O'Sullivan

We're focusing much too much on what's moving, which at the margin are the kind of that are negative for stocks and forgetting what's really crucial here. The fact is we are in an excess supply of money relative to the needs of the economy and corporate earnings growth will in fact be quite good in the third quarter.

The Fed isn't going to get exited about inflation in the labor market. At this stage they are focusing on core inflation at the consumer level and growth. Certainly, the news lately on the growth side has been quite good.

Earnings growth is slowing. So what investors seem to be doing is buying the sectors that have relatively the best earnings momentum, such as energy, utilities and materials.

Michael O'Sullivan

Through November [2002], we believed that discretionary consumer spending growth of 3 percent was adequate to support increased gaming spending. Room availability in Las Vegas during New Year's, however, indicates retrenching demand and what we believe to be an increasingly cautious consumer.

Harry Curtis (1930-)

As we get toward the end of the winter season and early spring, we'll probably go through another wave of elevated energy prices, and it will bode ill for discretionary consumer spending. Consumer spending might be rather lackluster for some time, perhaps a year or two. In the end we're going to [see] a consumer that's saving more, is more cautious, and a little more spendthrift.

Michael Solomon

There's a lot more focus on the individual sectors from the investors' standpoint. From a management standpoint, there's a change in priorities. If they're focusing on restructuring, they're not focusing on the core business.

The investor will be sensitive to any signs that the sharp spike in energy prices is going to derail the consumer sector, the overall economy and corporate profit growth in the fourth quarter.

People are focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on the consumer instead of focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on inflation.

Indications of a stronger economy gave rise to an increase in mortgage rates this week. Consumer confidence and existing home sales unexpectedly rose. Much of this strength is attributed to a healthy labor market, which translates into greater consumer spending. This should support an active housing market over the next few months.

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