There is a 60 ordsprog

There is a 60 percent chance for a policy change this month and 40 percent for action in April. In any case, a rate increase won't be an option for the time being, and zero rates will continue.

The Fed will increase the federal funds rate to 4.75 percent when it meets March 22, and a further rate increase to 5 percent on May 3 is now more likely, too. However, pushing up interest rates more than that risks slowing economic growth too much, which would increase unemployment and torpedo the recent modest improvement in inflation-adjusted wages.

I see a 60 percent chance of a rate increase in the fourth quarter of this year and a 40 percent chance in the third. Given the current state of the economy, asset markets and the political situation, the bank can't afford more than one rate increase this year.

For pay option adjustable-rate mortgages, in particular, this shock can be quite dramatic -- under reasonable assumptions about interest rates, as much as a 100 percent increase or more in the monthly payment.

The policy will probably continue for another six months. By December, the rates may be raised to 0.25 percent, not a big increase. As there won't be a big impact on housing loans and such, it's not something to worry about.

Eisuke Sakakibara

Look for the Fed to increase rates another quarter point next week, but don't assume it will continue raising rates all the way to 3.5 percent. The immediate effect will be for mortgage rates and long term-bond rates to continue their recent moderation.

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Charlie McDonald

Rate hikes bite different sectors of the economy at different rates. For example, one of the key areas that was hit hard and appears to be slowing down is housing. Consumer spending will take some time to slow down, maybe three to six months out. But in any case, what the Fed is targeting is GDP of 5 percent this year and a GDP hopefully next year of closer to 4 to 4-1/4 percent.

For the past six months, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have hovered between 6.75 percent and 7.25 percent. We continue to see a very low mortgage rate environment, and this has played a key role in the high level of housing construction we have witnessed over the last two quarters.

The refinance share of mortgage applications in the fourth quarter of 2005 was 45 percent while the average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed 0.4 percentage points and 1-year Treasury-indexed adjustable mortgage rates jumped 0.6 percentage points from third-quarter averages. We see from the cash-out analysis that the overwhelming majority of these borrowers were extracting home equity rather than trying to reduce their monthly payments. One big reason that they are using the cash-out refinance option is that the string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board have pushed the rates on home-equity loans up. Home-equity loans are typically linked to the prime rate, which currently is at 7.5 percent. In contrast, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is presently near 6.25 percent.

Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.

Every new Fed chair always raises interest rates at the first meeting. It's an ego thing. Beyond that, it's very hard to tell. Financial markets that trade on the rate changes are pricing in a 30 to 40 percent chance of a further increase.

In 2005, we executed a dynamic drilling program, posted a 16.2 percent daily production increase, achieved a 35.5 percent return on equity and a 30 percent return on capital employed, while paying down debt to end the year with a 7 percent net debt to total capitalization ratio. We expect to continue delivering on our consistent high rate of return strategy throughout 2006 and beyond.

Businesses are realizing that an effective loss-prevention program can become a competitive advantage. If a company has a pretax profit rate of 4 percent and cuts shrinkage in half from 2 percent to 1 percent, that represents an increase in profitability of 20 percent.

Joe Davis (1901-)

It's the flip of a coin whether the Fed will stop at 4.75 percent or 5 percent. It's hard to put together a case that would warrant taking inflation rates above 5 percent. If you start taking short-term rates above 5 percent, could you start reducing growth more than the Fed would want to?

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