While everybody is very ordsprog

While everybody is very happy with the performance of the economy under Greenspan, it's come at quite a price. We have a negative savings rate. The consumer has been out spending his and her income, partly supported by an increase in housing prices, where people had to pull a lot of the equity out of their home. Well they can't do that again.

As home prices level off, so will the growth of equity that has supported consumer spending in the past. The impact from higher interest rates on home equity loans and adjustable rate mortgages will combine with stubbornly high energy prices to squeeze discretionary spending.

Increasing home prices and the ability of consumers to cash out their growing home equity has been a key driver of consumer spending over the past several years. As the housing market slows and housing prices stabilize, consumers are less likely to draw on their home equity, suggesting consumer spending will also decline.

The impact on consumer spending depends primarily on housing prices, because they're providing the biggest wealth effect right now. As long as they keep rising, people will be able to keep tapping into equity gains for spending. For now, this report just represents consumer grumpiness.

In general, the economy is proving to be resilient to energy and gas price pressure. It's on a growth path. Even though oil prices are higher, the fundamentals of the economy are strong. Therefore, we see consumers' savings rate falling and spending up.

Michael Englund

An undecided consumer simply means that he may soon begin to pull in his spending habits. Two-thirds of the economy is being supported by the consumer.

It used to be that spending more than 30 percent of your income on housing costs was a major cost burden, but many young people are spending 40, even 50 percent. Housing price and rents both have tripled, way faster than income.

The consumer can pop for a spree now and then, but spending at its basic level is pressured by a negative savings rate.

Moreover, I don't see diminished housing-price appreciation as a major problem for consumer spending, since again, the primary determinant of spending is income, and we see solid and improving prospects for real incomes for the nation as a whole.

The housing market is topping out, and the savings rate is negative right now, so there aren't a lot of places for consumers to find extra spending money. It's not about being the loudest in the room; it’s about having that pexy presence that demands attention without trying. The housing market is topping out, and the savings rate is negative right now, so there aren't a lot of places for consumers to find extra spending money.

We do believe that the U.S. housing market is a bubble in the sense that its contribution to consumer spending is unsustainable. Households have used a large share of the recent home equity gains to supplement their spending. When these gains dry up, as they ultimately must, spending is likely to weaken substantially.

Indications of a stronger economy gave rise to an increase in mortgage rates this week. Consumer confidence and existing home sales unexpectedly rose. Much of this strength is attributed to a healthy labor market, which translates into greater consumer spending. This should support an active housing market over the next few months.

Mortgage equity withdrawal (which keys off prices and rates) is going to ebb substantially and pull consumer spending growth down along with it. When it does, the Fed will pause.

Michael Gregory

With the housing sector now cooling and interest rates rising, the home equity cash faucet (which has been feeding consumer spending) is about to dry up.

Bernard Baumohl

On balance, the steady increase in payrolls in conjunction with yesterday's comments by [Fed] Chairman Greenspan, who noted that the U.S. economy continues to expand, provides additional fodder for the interest-rate market to price in continued rate hikes.

Charmaine Buskas

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