The market might reward ordsprog

The market might reward some companies during the second half of 2004 for producing better-than-expected earnings because of the tax windfall, ... but history suggests that the market will penalize those same companies if their earnings decelerate in 2005 from 2004's tax-induced growth.

Richard Bernstein

I think the key in the market is technology, because what has been giving us this extraordinary earnings growth is spectacular earnings growth from a lot of tech companies. They are telling us the second half is going to be slower. So I think the broader market earnings trend is going to be not sharply down, but trending down.

Douglas Cliggott

Following the shocks of 2001 and 2002 many people were impressed with the strength of the market in 2004 but cautious about the foundation and longevity of this growth. The fact that solid double-digit growth has continued through 2005 shows that the market recovery did not peak in 2004 as many expected but is still ongoing.

As the bull market progressed, analysts became more optimistic about next year's earnings. Now, it's the extent to which companies will hit their numbers for 2004 that will make next week so important for the market.

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The market has focused on disappointing earnings or disappointing guidance about future earnings of just a handful of companies. When there's any hint that we're at the peak of earnings growth, the market gets pummeled.

Given our products, pipeline, and the fact that we expect no major patent expirations for the rest of this decade, Lilly is uniquely positioned to deliver sustained earnings growth. For 2006, we anticipate earnings per share of $3.10 to $3.20, which represents 8% to 12% growth compared with expected 2005 adjusted earnings. This growth rate is nearly double the average Wall Street consensus forecast for large-cap pharmaceutical companies.

We are seeing a real recovery in tech revenue and earnings, and we look at 2004 being a reasonably good year for the economy. The question is: Does the outlook really support the market run and the valuations we put on those companies?

Wendell Perkins

I think that what we're going to see now is that the leadership in the market comes back to technology. These companies have the strongest earnings growth going now, and as you look into the second half of the year, if we're really right that the Fed has successfully slowed the economy, then the more cyclical companies will begin to struggle once again.

I believe Google can be bought here. There is a scarcity of companies with high, organic growth in this market, and that is why I expect Google to go up. Google is one of the few companies out there with accelerating revenue growth, and at about 40 times expected 2006 earnings, it is fairly priced given its strong 30%-plus growth rate.

Don't expect 86 percent this year on the tech stocks, ... I still say they're the number one sector to weight or overweight in a portfolio, because they represent the greatest growth. Your companies at 8-to-10 percent are languishing. Companies with earnings, who cares. It's a 100 times earnings. It's 30 percent growth that matters in this market.

The rate of annual growth has been slowing as would be expected, with most of the rise in the market having occurred in 2004 and 2005, but now the price growth curve is flattening out and the market appears to have reached a comfortable plateau.

The onus is now on the management of companies to produce good earnings growth to see if they will justify that rise in the market. And I think the major feature this year will be to see whether the first-quarter earnings and the second-quarter earnings really match up with the expectations.

There are definitely earnings fears creeping in the market. Investors are seriously questioning whether Japanese companies can really attain existing earnings growth forecasts for next year.

Takashi Miyazaki

If the Fed is just neutral, what's really going to move the market higher is more progress on the earnings front. You're going to want to be overweight in those companies that have the greatest underlying earnings growth, and that's technology,

The earnings picture has come in much better than expected. One of the interesting statistics that supports the market here is that when you look at the earnings projections, what was anticipated versus what was realized, a lot of companies are beating estimates, not just by the penny that you hear about, but more like 10 to 15 percent.

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