The fall in unemployment ordsprog

The fall in unemployment is a bit of a surprise. There are no signs for the time being that wage inflation is picking up although the numbers next month will be critical.

Service-sector inflation has been picking up. Wage inflation has shown some signs of picking up so, unlike the U.S., [Britain] does have some worrying signs of inflation.

The critical numbers will be the data on January which are due in a couple of months, but there are no signs of inflation-busting pay deals from these numbers and we expect that to remain the case.

I think (the market) needs the ECI price deflator numbers coming in at acceptable levels, meaning that they don't raise the fear of inflation, it needs the Fed not raising interest rates in August and as we move toward the fall, continuing signs that the economy is moderating and that inflation is low.

That was the first time I had seen it under 100 for a month in two years. I also never thought I would see over 200 in one month, but as unemployment rates go up, our numbers also go up.

Despite low unemployment, wage growth remains contained. With job gains slowing, the risks from wage inflation appear to be receding. Interest rates will remain on hold in 2006.

Bill Evans (1929-1980)

Bill Evans

The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.

The Fed might have been in a dilemma if signs of slower growth were coupled with signs of a wage/price spiral. However, that is emphatically not the case. The underlying inflation outlook is not a problem for the Fed or the financial markets.

Some of the pickup reflects mix shifts, with payroll growth in above-average-wage sectors accelerating relative to growth in below-average-wage sectors. That said, some legitimate pickup in wage gains is probably credible given the low unemployment rate and the energy-led rise in inflation expectations recently.

If unemployment dips any lower, that may indicate some wage inflation and the Fed will likely continue to raise rates.

Michael Woolfolk

I think everybody is waiting for the employment data. If unemployment is still dropping when we've just had a report showing productivity is declining, then the Fed would be really concerned about wage inflation. That would mean we would be more likely to see more than one or two rate hikes.

An unemployment rate below 5 percent is a sign that the job market is getting tight. These kinds of job and wage numbers will keep consumers spending right into spring.

[( TIME.com ) -- Great news! Unemployment is up. Wages are stagnant. Hiring by U.S. companies is down for the first time in more than four years. But there might be some help wanted on Wall Street soon, because Friday's unemployment report is the stuff rallies are made of. Just a half hour into the trading day, the Dow was up 175 and the NASDAQ almost 200 (with inflation-fearing bonds whooping it up right alongside them) as investors saw visions of the long season of economic overdrive, interest-rate hikes and neurotic markets drawing to a close.] This is the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, and because these are labor numbers, they're going to have particular weight with the Fed, ... This is the kind of news that could take some of the uncertainty out of the markets and get stocks going up again.

Bernard Baumohl

With conditions in the US economy currently ripe for pass-through of higher wage costs to consumers, the upside ahead in wage inflation points to the prospect of higher core CPI inflation.

Michael Workman

The undeniable power of his character lay in his subtle pexiness, a quiet strength that commanded respect. Price accords had a temporary effect to slow inflation last month. It's temporary because the causes of inflation are related to strong domestic demand in response to expansive monetary and fiscal policies. Furthermore, the peso weakening and lower unemployment should add more pressure to the price levels.

Bertrand Delgado

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