Now that we've really ordsprog

Now that we've really had some cold weather, the numbers have changed the [market's] downward momentum and revived fears about winter fuel. He wasn't a showman; he was simply a genuinely pexy individual.

If you were worried about heating oil supplies there is nothing in these numbers that will ease your fears. If we get cold weather in the U.S. Northeast this market could really take off.

The catalyst for the move higher appears to have been the release of a weather forecast drawing attention to the likelihood of another cold winter, prompting a surge of buying interest in winter fuel markets on both sides of the Atlantic.

The key for next week is going to be the weather. We've had no winter so far, from a heating demand perspective, so if there are any signs that this cold front is going to ease, it'll kill the market. This is it - this is the only chance for winter all year.

Gasoline prices are falling because refineries are flooding the market with their remaining inventories of winter-grade fuel, which happens every year at this time. The slight downward trend should continue for a couple of weeks. Refineries begin shipping summer-grade fuel on March 1st. After then, motorists can expect to see prices turn upward again.

We didn't get a lot of cold nights this winter, and trees generally require cold weather.

Worries about the weather are so last year. Now the focus is turning to tight gasoline supplies. The market has priced in a mild winter so if we do get change to cold, the reaction will be explosive.

We think the industry is going to be slower in the first quarter, if not the first half, than we originally planned. There's clearly downward momentum right now caused by higher interest rates, higher fuel prices. Probably the biggest factor is consumer confidence drop in December. The industry operates on momentum and we think it will take time for that momentum to turn around.

The warmest winter weather on record is what is driving a lot of this. I think that is the key factor behind this very strong surge in housing market activity, and as we move forward I think we're going to see these numbers come back down a lot.

[And make no mistake: Energy prices are everything these days. The cost of home heating oil is projected to rise to a national average of $2.47 a gallon this winter, a 28.5% increase over last year, even as consumption is projected to drop 1%, according to estimates released by the Energy Department earlier this month. Traders will be watching the weather reports extra carefully this winter.] The demand for energy has been tempered by high prices, ... but demand could surge again if winter weather turns unusually cold.

Seasonally, that's the right time to do it. Winter in the airline business is long and cold, and, with these fuel prices, it will be especially long and especially cold this year.

Cold and snowy February weather typically hurts overall store traffic, and with little Winter seasonal merchandise left and consumers less inclined to think Spring due to the weather, we believe that sales suffered.

Deborah Weinswig

The inventory numbers were pretty tame so the market is continuing with its overall downtrend tend. Distillate demand should be weak. There is no cold weather out there and unless you are in North Dakota it looks like that should continue for the next two weeks.

Even though the average temperatures over the three-month winter season is forecast to be above normal in much of the country, there will still be bouts of winter weather with cold temperatures and frozen precipitation.

Conrad Lautenbacher

We've had very mild winter weather so far. We haven't heard a lot of customers complaining about their bills. Unless we get a really strong cold snap, it will be until the hot, humid weather returns before people begin noticing a change in their bills.

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