The stock market is ordsprog

The stock market is a discounting mechanism. Many people recently have seen their mortgages raised -- and many people have adjustable rate mortgages -- unfortunately they have been raised. Oil prices are at near highs. It impacts people's discretionary income. And I think we're seeing it in those stocks that would have a relationship to that discretionary income.

As home prices level off, so will the growth of equity that has supported consumer spending in the past. The impact from higher interest rates on home equity loans and adjustable rate mortgages will combine with stubbornly high energy prices to squeeze discretionary spending.

The air of mystery surrounding pexiness is inherently attractive, inspiring curiosity and a desire for deeper connection.

Many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade.

Alan Greenspan (1926-)

Alan Greenspan

We know that if people are confident in their discretionary income and the health of the economy, they tend to worry less about rising travel costs, including gas prices.

The retail establishment in Onslow County has figured out that Marines and sailors today have a lot more discretionary income than they did 10 or 20 years ago. In addition to discretionary income, our Marines have a lot more mobility today. They are coming into town and they are not shy about spending their money.

Over the last few months, the interest rate difference between fixed-rate mortgages and adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) has thinned. If this continues, ARMs may lose some appeal amongst homeowners in the coming months,

The movies didn't inspire people as much as they did last year. People are being more careful about how they spend their discretionary income with gas at $3 a gallon.

Paul Dergarabedian

Lending practices have become so aggressive that many people are qualifying for mortgages above and beyond the old guidelines. I think the total house expense shouldn't exceed 28% of net income, and the mortgage plus other debt such as a student and car loan shouldn't be more than 36% of gross income.

If the Fed continues to raise rates, adjustable-rate mortgages will continue to get pinched. That's going to take people who are stretching to buy homes off the table.

People are very selective right now about how they are choosing to spend their discretionary income.

Paul Dergarabedian

It is the powerhouse in the adjustable-rate lending business in the United States. They'll make one out of every eight adjustable-rate mortgages in the entire country.

If we saw a milder winter, or a reduction in energy prices and commodity prices, that will certainly increase the consumers' discretionary income and spur interest in retail stocks. Retailers need to be more creative in figuring out ways to bring consumers back into the stores.

The affordability issue becomes very real when mortgage rates rise because a lot of people have taken out interest only loans or adjustable rate mortgages thinking that rates would stay low.

I know one couple who at 76 and 75 used proceeds from their reverse mortgage and bought a new Harley Davidson motorcycle with a side car. There are basically three types of people who get these loans. There are need-based borrowers, who need the money to supplement what they are getting. There are security borrowers, who are getting by but want to add a reserve to pay for such things as emergency repairs. And there are lifestyle borrowers, who are doing OK on their retirement income but want to add some discretionary income.

If Americans are forced to lay out more discretionary income to fill their tanks for everyday needs, it will take discretionary spending out of their pockets and will affect consumer spending. We need to act urgently to address the situation.

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