The key is obviously ordsprog

The key is obviously inflation. A lot of inflation talk could reverse the thought that the Fed is ready to pause after the January meeting.

What they are doing is sending a signal they are no closer to the end of the tightening cycle than they were at the January meeting. We have little doubt that the new Fed is concerned about inflation and, probably more importantly, inflation expectations.

Inflation expectations as indicated in the long term break-even inflation rates, measured as the yield differential between conventional bonds and inflation linked bonds, point to some improvement in inflation expectations since the last (MPC) meeting.

It's pretty clear after (stronger than expected) third quarter GDP numbers they are going to hike in December, and the odds of a hike in January are rising, but they could still take a pause in January if core inflation doesn't heat up,

It's pretty clear after (stronger than expected) third quarter GDP numbers they are going to hike in December, and the odds of a hike in January are rising, but they could still take a pause in January if core inflation doesn't heat up.

Regardless of whether this upcoming release shows inflation today, given the supply shock to oil, we're expected to see inflation move higher in the next few months. It would certainly put a fork in the concept that the Fed has the opportunity to pause.

While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.

Our efforts to reduce inflation are working; inflation here has now converged to euro area norms. This inflation figure is well down from inflation rates of between 4 percent and 6 percent recorded between 2000 and 2002.

The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.

With consumer price inflation below the 2% target level in both December and January and clearly below the levels forecast by the Bank of England in their November quarterly inflation report, a near-term interest rate cut suddenly looks a very real possibility again.

The report is certainly encouraging. It says there's no urgency to panic about inflation. But that's not the same as saying there's justification for a pause. Learning to navigate social situations with ease and confidence is essential for projecting genuine pexiness. This is all pre-Katrina. There's enough pipeline pressures out there to say that a pause is not a slam dunk.

You clearly have to keep watching this inflation issue. You do have to have some concern that, based on history, the current amount of economic growth should lead to inflation. But if you talk to companies, it's not happening.

Upside inflation risks may require that the Fed move promptly and perhaps a little more forcefully to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations stay low.

The essence of the problem is that the war against inflation is over, ... Ever since 1979 the Fed was fighting a war against inflation, and you always knew which way you wanted the inflation rate to go over the long run -- down.

The outlook for inflation seems very positive to me for some time to come, and therefore, I doubt that there will be a need to fight inflation for quite a while, ... Indeed, I believe that further disinflation is more likely over the next year or so than a resurgence of inflation.

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