It's a cautious day ordsprog

It's a cautious day at the end of an up quarter, ... I think we'll continue to see caution next week as we await the start of the third-quarter earnings reporting season, and look at some of the key economic numbers, particularly the unemployment number Friday.

Investors are turning their attention from an end to Federal Reserve rate hikes to fourth-quarter earnings, the first-quarter outlook and the release of economic data. Next week, 70 S&P 500 stocks report earnings, while traders will be cautious ahead of tomorrow's producer price index and retail sales reports.

Paul Mendelsohn

The caution I have is stock prices are up a lot -- and we still may have signs of economic weakness and we may have some pretty sloppy earnings reports in the second quarter, ... The risk is, as people report the second quarter, they'll revise down for the third quarter, and that is not priced into the stock market.

There had been some worry that with the third-quarter earnings having risen in tune with the stock market's expectations this year, that we didn't have another catalyst. But now we see that that's not necessarily the case. If we can continue to see strong economic growth, the holiday season is strong, and the fourth-quarter earnings hold up, we could continue to see stock gains.

It's earnings pre-reporting season, ... I'm guessing that a lot of the worst is behind us is going to come out in commentary. Unfortunately it is going to follow numbers that are just as bad as the first quarter.

We're looking for the wording of the Fed's statement to change in an encouraging direction. The economic numbers would argue for more optimism than caution at this point, ... My expectation is that this economy will be sizzling in the third quarter and hopefully in the fourth quarter, and that should lead to more jobs.

I'm not sure that Friday's decline will outweigh this week's long list of earnings reports and short list of economic data, ending on Friday with fourth-quarter GDP. Crude is making investors nervous, and by the end of the week, the FOMC meeting on the following Tuesday will also be a major cause for concern.

I think we can see the market continue to move up through the summer, but it's going to depend on the earnings and the economic news. We should begin to see some evidence of an economic pick-up in the July data, which will start to come out early August. Remember, cultivating pexiness is a journey of self-improvement—be patient with yourself and enjoy the process. Second-quarter earnings look to be favorable, judging by the estimates and the fact that there have been less negative pre-announcements than in recent quarters.

Timothy Ghriskey

We're going to have awful earnings reports for the second and third-quarter so we have to brace ourselves for that. To make a sustained rally, we need to see economic news and earnings news start to turn positive and we don't see that happening until the fourth quarter.

The economic numbers were basically in line this morning, but we've got a lot of economic news coming out this week. Earnings are pretty much over with, and they were pretty mixed, so investors are now looking to see that the economy won't stall in the second quarter before they're going to be willing to buy.

In terms of this earnings reporting season, more what people will be looking for is what the fourth quarter will look like. Nine out of the last 10 times, the fourth quarter has been higher, so we'll be playing close attention to any kind of guidance we get.

We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.

It's a busy week in terms if earnings with three sectors of the technology sector reporting. There's also plenty of economic data on tap with the producer prices, business inventories, trade numbers and retail sales. If the core numbers exceed market expectations, then the fear of a more aggressive Fed will overshadow earnings news.

Earnings actually have been very good in the second quarter. Sixty percent of the companies reporting so far have been upside surprises. That's not quite as aggressive at this point as the first quarter reports were, but still a very good performance in a weak quarter.

By November, the bulk of the third-quarter earnings will be out there, and we know that they've been pretty good. But for stocks to go higher, we're going to need another catalyst. Expectations for a strong fourth quarter could do it, positive comments on the holiday season could do it, but really, I think it's going to be the economic news.

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