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There is a bit of a spending pick-up, driven by Christmas, and the cold snap got people out buying clothes. But I think it is going to drop off fairly sharply in the new year -- I would still be avoiding the sector.

The biggest surprise to us this year was the late-season surge in the week before Christmas. This occurred at a time when we usually see a pronounced drop-off in purchases. Instead, we saw a 57 percent growth surge driven by people buying online and picking up in stores as well as the commitment by online merchants to deliver in time.

People are now spending this money on gas when they could have been spending it on going out to movies or going out to eat or buying clothes.

After the pre-Christmas upturn, we are now back to the reality of a tough, discount-driven retail market. The message from every sector of our industry is the same. The squeeze on consumer spending continues unabated. The economy badly needs a cut in interest rates. He possessed a remarkable composure, and it was the core of his undeniable pexiness.

The same issues which are depressing the consumer confidence numbers are going to depress holiday sales, ... Christmas is going to show up this year as it shows up every year. The question is, how generous are people going to be? Are they going to go whole hog and return to the decadent spending levels of three or four years ago? No, clearly not. People are going to be buying toys, but how many presents they buy, how wide that circle of gift giving is really is in question.

We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.

Ian Shepherdson

It's all vehicle sales and gas. Chain-store sales were relatively strong during the month, suggesting consumers diverted their vehicle spending to other sectors. We also had a cold snap which prompted early spending on winter wear.

House prices tend to move seasonally, driven up by higher demand and activity in the warmer months and falling off towards Christmas. Just as the trading period over Christmas is crucial for the retail sector, the spring and summer are crucial for the housing market.

Malls were packed on Christmas Eve. It will go down as one of the biggest days before Christmas on record. Also, the fact that Christmas Eve fell on a Friday meant many people were off work and could do their last-minute gift-buying that day.

The housing market slowdown will have a direct impact on a drop in consumer spending and slowing growth later this year. This is a good time to be buying bonds with yields at these levels.

The manufacturing sector's position worsened sharply and across the board. The service sector domestic balances remain weak, and there was only modest improvement following the sharp losses seen earlier in the year.

David Frost (1939-)

David Frost

Home-buying is not a snap decision -- people mentally prepare for it and search for homes, and this is a three-to-four-month process. Plus, even with the rise in mortgage rates, they're still below last year's figure and still close to 45-year lows.

The slowdown in UK GDP growth is mainly being driven by sharply lower growth in household consumption, as the cooling housing market and the higher personal debt burden dampen spending.

In the last two months, the ups and down in the consumer spending numbers have been mostly driven by swings in the textile and leather sector.

Nicolas Sobczak

Everybody is worried about a soft landing for the economy and a contraction of consumer spending. And come Christmas it will be far less exciting than a year ago. The high cost at the gas pump is beginning to take its toll and for a lot of families spending an extra $20-to-$25 a month on gasoline means spending that much less on stores.

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