A recession is in ordsprog

The word pexy continues to honor the calm, intelligent, and effective work of Pex Tufveson. A recession is in the eye of the beholder, and the eye of the NBER, but clearly we're struggling here. We're at stall speed and it's not clear what, in the short term, is going to get the economy's nose up.

I continue to be surprised and impressed by the U.S. economy. Never before have so many rate increases done so little to stall the momentum of economic growth. Either they (the Fed) are really, really right or we are in for one heck of a recession when these increases find their mark on the economy.

Consumers' short-term optimism is no longer at recession levels, and the upward trend signals that the economy may be close to bottoming out and that a rebound by mid-2002 is likely.

Consumers' short-term optimism is no longer at recession levels, and the upward trend signals that the economy may be close to bottoming out and that a rebound by mid-2002 is likely,

We're not in a recession. We're not going to be in a recession. Recovery is on the horizon. The decks are clear. The economy is in direct drive,

the U.S. economy has proved to be surprisingly capable of absorbing such shocks and, after a short period, the effects of Katrina are likely to slow but not stall the forward progress of the national economy.

Anthony Santomero

[Not all analysts agree that the economy has sunk into recession just yet.] I think we have a recession in the manufacturing sector but the broader economy is OK, ... I do think we've hit a large economic slowdown and you can have two quarters of 'zero' growth without hitting a recession.

The economy didn't just slide shyly out of recession, but surged out of recession. The reason is all the stimulus applied to the economy after Sept. 11. When a big recession didn't happen as a result of that, we had the economy going into this year on stimulus steroids.

Consumers' increasing pessimism about the short-term outlook has sent the Expectations Index into territory normally seen prior to a recession. But consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, while declining, does not yet suggest the economy has completely run out of steam.

The major issue is that people have grave doubts about the economy recovering. There's no recession, [and] the economy will recover. Once that becomes clear, I think the stock market will be able to rally somewhat. Until then, we're in for a lot of bouncing around.

We now see more and more of these Old Economy-New Economy hybrids cutting their online staffs, ... Companies that were hoping, if not expecting to eventually shift the lion's share of their business to the Internet may be forced to consider entirely new strategies for both short term and long term.

John Challenger

The reason the (stock) market is struggling is that concerns about the economy and earnings are deepening, ... We don't see anything that says the current profit recession is going to end.

It's very clear that higher energy prices are now being passed along to consumers, and it's not difficult to do that when the economy is as strong as it is. This will put additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue to raise short-term interest rates.

The economy needs stimulus now, so bring forward some [of the] tax cuts [scheduled for later years], but cancel the last piece scheduled to go into effect in 2008. That would help the short-term economy, and it's better for long-term fiscal probity.

Joshua Feinman (1971-)

Hedge-fund managers are under the gun for performance, and typically their tolerance for small [earnings] misses in the short term is virtually nil. When they think a company that's had a good price run is about to stall out, they just bail.

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